Swing states. We’ve all heard the buzz term. A swing state refers to any state likely to have a significant influence on upcoming federal elections, characterized by the unpredictable nature of its outcome, with both major political parties having a viable opportunity to secure victory. If you care about elections, you should pay attention to these states, like Arizona and Pennsylvania.
While lists may vary slightly, sources like The Hill give us six states that fit this description.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia
Here at the Independent Center, we’ve been very interested in understanding two of these states: Pennsylvania and Arizona. You can find our in-depth survey data by signing up on the website HERE.
What do registered voters in these two states want, policy-wise?
To answer this question we asked them directly, “[…] which of the following do you think will have the biggest impact on your vote?”
As we explained in our article on Afforadability & Inflation most Americans, view economic issues as their highest policy priority. Voters in both Arizona and Pennsylvania feel the same way. Their three main priorities, in order, are economic issues, immigration, and government spending.
There are some noteworthy nuances in this data. Arizona voters are, at least slightly, more likely to view immigration as a priority than Pennsylvania voters. This may partly be due to Arizona having a significant Hispanic and/or Latino population. 20% of polled Arizona voters self-identified as being of “Hispanic or Latino descent”
It should be no surprise that when a policy topic directly affects voters, they tend to care about it more. In fact, out of the 50 states, Arizona ranks 15th for the state with the most foreign-born residents. According to World Population Review, foreign-born residents make up 12.6% of Arizona’s population, a stark contrast from the 7.2% of Pennsylvania.
In both states, voters prefer a moderate immigration policy. One where immigration is regulated but not strongly limited. We gave them the statement, “Borders are used to control immigration” and asked which of the listed responses they agreed with the most. Over 50% in each state agreed with the statement that “The Government shall regulate immigration to allow necessary immigrants to come in a legal way”
Given this, how will they vote? It’s hard to say.
Like most Americans, Arizona and Pennsylvania voters are dissatisfied with the two-party system. A majority of voters in both states expressed a distrust that either of the major two parties would listen to their concerns.
These voters also express serious pessimism about the current American political climate.
If they don’t like the current options, what do these swing state voters think makes the ideal presidential candidate?
In both states, they want a candidate who will work with both sides of the political spectrum instead of prioritizing party loyalty.
Notably, these voters don’t seem too concerned about how “civil” or “tolerant” a candidate is. The ideal candidate should have “common sense” and be “levelheaded.” This may mean that you can’t win these voters by focusing on the “mean tweets” of the opposition.
Ultimately the voters of Arizona and Pennsylvania are like the rest of us, cornered about our country’s deteriorating economic and political situation. These swing state voters want a pragmatic leadership that transcends party lines, emphasizing solutions over rhetoric and practicality over polarized politics. As the data reveals, the pathway to winning their support lies in addressing core issues like the economy, immigration, and government spending with a common sense and level-headed approach.
