Independent voters swung for Republicans and Trump because they believed they would address cost of living issues and the economy, but what they got were distractions like renaming the Gulf of Mexico, and tax increases by way of Trumps coveted tariff policy.
The Big Picture
Death and taxes. My Cleveland Browns losing.
There are few guarantees in life. Having immersed myself in politics throughout my adult life, I’ve come to appreciate another one: our politics is driven by independent voters. This political fact is conspicuously absent from conventional political thought and yet, strangely taken for granted during every campaign cycle.
In the words of George W. Bush, independents are “the deciders.” They are the coveted swing voters who decide the outcome of our elections. They supported Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, prevented the “Red Wave” in 2022, and helped Trump win the swing states in 2024.
The days of rallying the base to win are long gone.
A plurality of United States voters has self-identified as independent in Gallup surveys since the Obama years. This figure has consistently remained in the 40s over the last decade, even breaking 50% in June of last year. According to 2024 exit polls, independent voters (34%) turned out 3 points more than Democrats (31%) and only one point behind Republicans (35%).
Zooming In
Until recently, Republicans were riding high off swinging independent voters in November, who trusted them more on the key issues of affordability and inflation. But more recently, Republicans have found themselves on a pretty nasty downswing.
They severely underperformed in both of Florida’s special Congressional elections and lost the Wisconsin Supreme Court race by 10 points.
In the two deep red districts of Florida, where Republicans typically win by more than 30 points, Randy Fine (FL-6) and Jimmy Patronis (FL-1) won by 14 and 15 points, respectively. In Wisconsin, Republicans lost the state Supreme Court seat despite the support and endorsement of President Trump, who carried the state in November, along with the backing and financial contributions from Elon Musk.
When things go awry in politics, like they did in Florida and Wisconsin, you can bet you’ll find every piece of conventional political wisdom trotted out to explain why. However, in these three cases, as in most others, they fall short.
Florida Governor Ron Desantis offered the age-old “bad candidate” explanation in Florida’s sixth congressional district. “He repels people,” said Desantis of the underperforming Randy Fine.
What about the classic, “money in politics?” Not even a ton of money from the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, who contributed a reported $21 million could get Republicans within 10 points of the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.
Maybe the Republican Party’s opposition is on the rise, fielding great candidates who are really moving voters? Nope, the opposite is true, actually. According to a recent CNN poll, the Democratic Party’s favorability is at an all-time low.
Conventional political wisdom is losing its explanatory power. A better explanation is that independent voters swung for Republicans and Trump because they believed they would address cost of living issues and the economy, but what they got were distractions like purchasing Greenland, renaming the Gulf of Mexico, and tax increases by way of Trumps coveted tariff policy.
In Wisconsin, Republicans hit their goal of turning out more than 60% of Trump voters for conservative Judge Brad Schimel. Judge Schimel received 62% of Wisconsin’s Trump voters yet still lost by 10 points. The difference makers were the 30% of the state’s unaffiliated voters who helped deliver Trump Wisconsin in November but broke for the Democratic Judge Susan Crawford.
The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment helps illustrate the point. Independent consumer sentiment can be seen rising on the way to the election, peaking shortly after in December. It didn’t take long for Republicans to squander that goodwill by sidestepping the issues that brought them victories in November in favor of political chaos and tax hikes.
Independent Lens
The lesson is clear: independent voters expect results. Ignore them at your peril.
The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board agrees, writing, “But the elections are a warning to Mr. Trump to focus on what got him re-elected—especially prices and growth in real incomes after inflation. His willy-nilly tariff agenda undermining stock prices and consumer and business confidence isn’t helping.”
The days of conventional political theory are waning. Money in politics can sometimes turn out the base, but it doesn’t move independents. The Harris campaign proved as much.
Nowadays, money is not the currency; authenticity is. A big part of being an authentic candidate who appeals to independents is genuinely meaning what you say and delivering on your promises. Consequently, independent voters uniquely hold politicians accountable since they have no loyalty to either major party.
A politician who fails to deliver on campaign promises is held accountable - in real-time - as we just saw in Florida and Wisconsin.
