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The Independent Center's September 2024 survey of 600 likely voters in Florida reveals a highly competitive Senate race, widespread dissatisfaction with Congress, and a strong preference for bipartisan representation. As the 2024 election season heats up, Florida once again finds itself at the center of the political universe, with its 30 electoral votes and key Senate race potentially deciding control of both the White House and Congress.
Florida Senate Race: A Close Contest
When asked, "If the Senate election were held today, how would you vote if your options were Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell or Republican Rick Scott?" (FS5A), Florida voters were almost evenly split:
Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell: 44%
Republican Rick Scott: 46%
Unsure: 10%
With only a 2-point lead for incumbent Senator Rick Scott and 10% of voters still undecided, the race remains a toss-up. Mucarsel-Powell, a former U.S. Representative who narrowly lost her re-election bid in 2020, is seeking to make a comeback by appealing to Florida's diverse electorate and emphasizing her moderate record. Meanwhile, Scott is running on his experience as a two-term governor and his close ties to the Trump administration.
Both candidates will need to work hard to sway undecided voters and mobilize their bases in the coming weeks. The outcome of this race could determine control of the Senate, making it a top priority for both national parties and outside groups. Expect a flood of campaign ads, high-profile surrogates, and intense ground games as the race enters its final stretch.
Presidential Race: Dead Heat Between Trump and Harris
The survey also asked, "If the Presidential election were held today, how would you vote if your options were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris?" (GS3). The results show a virtual tie:
Republican Donald Trump: 48%
Democrat Kamala Harris: 47%
Unsure: 5%
With such a narrow margin and 5% still unsure, the presidential race in Florida is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Trump, who narrowly won the state in 2016 and 2020, is seeking to replicate his success by energizing his loyal base and capitalizing on his economic record. Harris, meanwhile, is hoping to rebuild the Obama coalition that carried the state in 2008 and 2012, with a particular focus on turning out Black and Latino voters.
The outcome could hinge on the campaigns' ability to turn out their supporters and persuade the few remaining undecided voters. Florida's diverse electorate, with significant populations of seniors, Latinos, and suburban women, makes it a microcosm of the national political landscape. As a result, both campaigns are likely to pour enormous resources into the state, with a particular focus on the Tampa Bay area, Miami-Dade County, and the I-4 corridor.
Floridians Deeply Dissatisfied with Congress
Mirroring national trends, Floridians expressed strong disapproval of Congress's performance. When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing (GS2), a clear majority (61%) disapproved:
Strongly approve: 8%
Somewhat approve: 23%
Somewhat disapprove: 34%
Strongly disapprove: 27%
Unsure: 8%
This widespread dissatisfaction suggests that Floridians, like many Americans, are frustrated with gridlock and partisanship in Washington. With major issues like healthcare, immigration, and climate change facing the nation, voters are looking for leaders who can break through the dysfunction and deliver results.
Candidates who can demonstrate a commitment to bipartisanship and problem-solving may have an advantage in this environment. In particular, those who can point to a record of working across the aisle and finding common ground may be able to appeal to voters fed up with business as usual in the nation's capital.
Desire for Bipartisan Representation
Indeed, when asked, "Which of the following do you think would be the best candidate to represent you and your neighbors in Congress?" (PS1), nearly half of Floridians (49%) preferred a candidate who works with both parties:
A candidate who works and votes with Republicans: 23%
A candidate who works and votes with Democrats: 22%
A candidate who works and votes with both: 49%
Unsure: 6%
This strong preference for bipartisanship suggests that Floridians are tired of political divisions and want their representatives to find common ground. In a state known for its close elections and divided politics, voters seem to be yearning for leaders who can bridge the partisan divide and focus on solving problems.
Candidates who can appeal to this desire for cooperation and compromise may be well-positioned to win over voters in the Sunshine State. This could be particularly true in the state's many swing districts, where moderate voters often determine the outcome of elections.
Voters Pessimistic About Political System
Despite their desire for bipartisanship, Florida voters remain deeply skeptical of the political system's ability to deliver. When asked if they believe their voice and opinions are being heard in Washington by their elected representatives (PS2), a majority (48%) said no, while only 28% said yes and 25% were unsure.
This pessimism likely stems from years of polarization and gridlock in Washington, as well as a sense that special interests and wealthy donors have too much influence over the political process. To win back voters' trust, candidates will need to demonstrate a genuine commitment to representing their constituents' interests and a willingness to stand up to powerful interests.
Looking Ahead to November
As the 2024 election enters its final weeks, Florida once again finds itself at the center of the political universe. With a razor-thin margin in the presidential race, a key Senate contest, and a strong desire for bipartisan leadership, the state is poised to play a decisive role in shaping the nation's future.
For candidates and campaigns, the message from Florida voters is clear: they are looking for leaders who can rise above the partisan fray, work together to solve problems, and restore faith in the political system. Those who can speak to these sentiments and demonstrate a record of bipartisan accomplishment may have the inside track in the Sunshine State.
Of course, Florida is just one piece of the national political puzzle, and much can change between now and Election Day. But as goes Florida, so often goes the nation - and right now, it's anyone's guess where the state will land in November. One thing is certain: the Independent Center will be tracking the race closely, providing insights and analysis that cut through the noise and help voters make informed decisions at the ballot box.
Want to dive deeper into the data? Download the complete toplines from the Independent Center's September 2024 South East Swing State survey and explore the full range of questions and responses. From the state of the economy to the most important issues facing the country, the toplines provide a comprehensive look at what's on the minds of voters in key Southern Swing states.
