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The Independent Center's September 2024 survey of 600 likely voters in Georgia paints a picture of a state evenly divided in the upcoming presidential election, dissatisfied with the performance of Congress, and hungry for leaders who can work across party lines.
Presidential Race: Trump and Harris in Dead Heat
When asked, "If the Presidential election were held today, how would you vote if your options were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris?" (GS3), Georgia voters were split right down the middle:
Republican Donald Trump: 47%
Democrat Kamala Harris: 49%
Unsure: 4%
With less than two months to go until Election Day, the presidential race in Georgia is a true toss-up. Trump, who carried the state by a narrow margin in 2016 and 2020, is seeking to hold onto his coalition of rural and suburban voters. Harris, meanwhile, is hoping to recreate the success of President Biden's narrow victory in 2020 by turning out Black voters and making inroads with college-educated whites.
The small number of undecided voters (just 4%) suggests that both campaigns will be focused more on turning out their base than persuading the few remaining swing voters. In a state where elections are often decided by the narrowest of margins, even small fluctuations in turnout among key demographic groups could tip the balance.
Georgians Give Congress Low Marks
Like their counterparts in other swing states, Georgia voters take a dim view of Congress's performance. When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing (GS2), nearly 3 in 5 (59%) expressed disapproval:
Strongly approve: 8%
Somewhat approve: 25%
Somewhat disapprove: 35%
Strongly disapprove: 24%
Unsure: 8%
This dissatisfaction spans party lines, with both Democrats and Republicans expressing frustration with the gridlock and dysfunction in Washington. As in other states, candidates who can present themselves as problem-solvers and consensus-builders may have an advantage in this environment.
Desire for Bipartisanship Runs High
When asked what kind of candidate would be best to represent them and their neighbors in Congress (PS1), a plurality of Georgia voters (43%) said they preferred someone who would work with both parties:
A candidate who works and votes with Republicans: 27%
A candidate who works and votes with Democrats: 26%
A candidate who works and votes with both: 43%
Unsure: 3%
This appetite for bipartisanship is particularly notable in a state with a reputation for intense partisanship and polarization. In recent years, Georgia has been at the center of heated battles over voting rights, abortion, and other divisive issues.
But the survey results suggest that many Georgia voters are tired of the constant conflict and are looking for leaders who can find common ground. In a closely divided state, candidates who can appeal to this desire for cooperation may be well-positioned to build winning coalitions.
Georgians See Need for More Independent Voices
In addition to their desire for bipartisanship, Georgia voters also expressed an openness to candidates outside the two-party system. When asked what type of elected officials are needed in Washington to improve the federal government's performance (PS4), nearly a quarter (24%) said more Independents:
More elected Democrats: 34%
More elected Independents: 24%
More elected Republicans: 32%
Unsure: 10%
This willingness to look beyond the Democratic and Republican parties is a notable departure from the hyper-partisan politics that have characterized recent elections in Georgia and across the country. It suggests that there may be an opening for Independent and third-party candidates who can present themselves as a fresh alternative to the status quo.
Looking Ahead to November
As the 2024 campaign enters its final stretch, Georgia is once again shaping up to be a key battleground in the fight for the White House and control of Congress. With a dead-even presidential race, a strong desire for bipartisanship, and an openness to Independent voices, the state is poised to play a pivotal role in deciding the nation's future.
For candidates and campaigns, the message from Georgia voters is clear: they are looking for leaders who can rise above the partisan fray, work together to solve problems, and bring a fresh perspective to the challenges facing the country. Those who can speak to these desires and present a vision for a more united and functional government may have the inside track in the Peach State.
Of course, much can change between now and Election Day, and Georgia is just one piece of a complex national political landscape. But if the state's voters are any indication, the appetite for change and cooperation is strong - and those who can tap into it may be rewarded at the ballot box in November.
Want to dive deeper into the data? Download the complete toplines from the Independent Center's September 2024 South East Swing State survey and explore the full range of questions and responses. From the state of the economy to the most important issues facing the country, the toplines provide a comprehensive look at what's on the minds of voters in key Southern Swing states.
