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Everyone knew this election would be fiscally focused. While serious social issues, such as women’s reproductive rights, were important, this was the first opportunity for voters to express their opinions regarding the post-COVID economy.
Following a period of massive government spending, huge new programs, and more direct intervention, voters made a clear decision. That it surprises the Democrats shows how out of touch they are with the real economy.
Democrats observe high-level economic indicators: record or near-record low unemployment, inflation decreasing to the desired range, interest rates beginning to decline, and economic growth appearing robust. It’s easy to understand why they feel unrecognized for a “great” economy.
Unfortunately, the lived experience of most voters does not align with aggregated national statistics. Instead, it relates to how their wallets feel after paying significantly more for basic groceries, record-high rent and mortgages, soaring healthcare premiums, higher insurance costs, and more.
Democrats were aware of these issues, as were Republicans and Trump. Both parties, their campaigns, pollsters, and candidates knew about them.
Instead, it might be the case that voters were offered two different models. Given the choice, they made a pragmatic and rational decision. After their experience over the past four years, they chose the Less Government Party.
During the Biden administration, Democrats launched and invested in numerous big government spending programs, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, along with many smaller interventions, including a litany of new regulations. Alongside executive orders and an expansion of activist agencies, the government appeared to be taking over every aspect of the economy and our personal lives.
From subsidies for the types of cars we should build and drive, to what appliances we can purchase, to what type of energy we should consume, and to who we can and cannot hire, there seemed to be no limit on what Democrats would impose on us for our own good.
Conversely, Trump and the GOP benefitted from prioritizing the private sector and citizens. Their promises included reducing and eliminating regulations, reining in an overreaching government, and delivering more tax cuts, which all indicated a shift away from the notion that government knows best.
This difference might be the most important factor in why voters backed away from the Democrats and rewarded Trump. They chose to support the proven ability of the private sector to deliver growth and abundance. Trump’s first term is still fresh in our minds, as most of us remember the booming pre-COVID economy.
Making matters worse for Democrats is that, despite record spending and a growing debt and deficit, their major spending programs didn’t seem to yield real-world results. The green subsidies were gobbled up by consultants and companies, providing substantial tax benefits to their investors. This did not create a broad-based and tangible impact for most voters.
And all the new money that went into government programs created a boon for new government jobs, to the tune of double the growth of the private sector from December 2022 to December 2023. Ultimately, this significant increase in government-funded jobs did not provide better public services, let alone bring new products to shelves.
Contrast this with the highly impactful 2017 Trump tax cuts, an effect felt by most voters nationwide. While it is widely known that Trump ran massive deficits, his policies also helped spur faster wage and economic growth in the private sector during his first term.
The Democrats' post-election analyses feature many voices calling for more attention to economics, the working class, the Latino vote, and the Black vote, all with the same prescription—what more they can do. It’s clear they continue to misdiagnose the issue. Maybe the solution is to have fewer new ideas and programs to “help” and more about entrusting and enabling private citizens to make the choices that are best for them, their families, and their communities.
Trump and the GOP must avoid making heavy-handed promises that use government to achieve their goals. Tariffs, distortionary targeted tax cuts, and culture war promises all lead to increased government intervention in the private economy. These, especially tariffs, could quickly dampen the enthusiasm of new Trump voters.
The lesson is that swing voters did not vote for a rebranding of heavy-handed, big government policies from Blue to Red. The party that recognizes this first will retain independent voters’ support.
