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Incumbents face a global reckoning: recent elections show voters abandoning the status quo. What lessons can America learn from this anti-incumbent wave?
The Big Picture
Being an incumbent has its advantages. Whether it’s name recognition, existing campaign infrastructure, or political experience, incumbents have historically held an upper hand in elections. However, recent global trends contradict this phenomenon.
Zooming in
In liberal democracies, the past few years have been terrible for incumbent parties.
- In the summer, French President’s Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance (RE) party suffered heavy losses in the European elections.
- Germany is scheduled to have snap elections on February 23rd after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government collapsed.
- In the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer and the Labour Party assumed control of government in a landslide win.
- Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s national unity government collapsed leading to the rise of Giorgia Meloni and the Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) party.
- South Korea’s liberal opposition party won a majority, leading to a full constitutional crisis and President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment.
Why it matters
In the United States and around the world, voters continue to feel frustrated by issues of affordability and inflation following the Covid-19 pandemic. This largely accounts for the Democrats' electoral defeat in 2024 and the resurgence of Donald Trump and the GOP.
What can America learn from these trends?
Independent voters are pragmatic. If the GOP does not adequately address the issues that concern independent voters, they can expect to succumb to the anti-incumbent trends in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 Presidential Election.
Independent Lens
Independent voters hold the power. Expectations are high for the incoming administration, but global trends indicate that patience is wearing thin with the status quo political parties. Four more years of gridlock and ineffectiveness will likely intensify this discontent.
