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The biggest trend this election cycle was how quickly Americans are abandoning partisan identities and declaring themselves independent. Consider this quote from a recent Politico article by David Siders:
“Dick Wadhams, a former Colorado Republican Party chair and longtime party strategist told me when we met in Denver that if the surge in unaffiliated voters continues, parties might become “bit players” in the political landscape.”
As we move from a Baby Boomer to a Millennial dominated electorate, we anticipate that independent identification will only continue to increase. This is bolstered by the fact that more independents voted than Democrats in the 2024 election.
But this sentiment extends beyond the ballot box on election day. Independent-related searches spiked in recent months, with people dismayed by their lack of choices in the November election. The graph below represents the period from January 1, 2023 to January 1, 2024. Note the spike that emerges from June 2024 to November:
Now comes the hard part...
For better or for worse, the election is over. It’s important to remember that running a campaign and hosting extravagant rallies are the easy parts.
Governing is far more difficult.
Understandably, much is expected of the new Republican majority. They control both the House and the Senate, in addition to the White House.
The pressure is on for Republicans to govern. Frustrated by an out-of-touch Biden administration and an affordability crisis, independent voters were more than willing to flip to Donald Trump and the GOP. But expectations are high not only for inflation to cool, but for prices to actually go down.
There have also been audacious claims and anticipation that the GOP will finally be able to make progress on spending issues and reducing our federal debt. But expectations in that arena might be cooling.
Remember the circus that was the 118th Congress? This was primarily driven by the razor-thin, nine-seat Republican majority. Well, the incoming GOP majority has been winnowed down to just three seats and is slated to be the smallest since 1931.
However, the spending challenge is more than just a numbers issue at this point. There’s a fundamental identity crisis emerging, as a desire to cut federal spending is in direct competition with the fact that Republican counties disproportionately depend on government transfers when compared to Democrat ones. For all of the excitement around the DOGE commission and $2 trillion in cuts, it seems the reality of our structural spending problem is starting to sink in for Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Without modernizing entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, federal spending will remain mandatory and unsustainable. But the Republican base isn’t ready to have these tough conversations, perhaps because they’re major beneficiaries.
Meanwhile, Democrats are having their fair share of issues. The progressive left is still licking its wounds, after perceived liberal strongholds in places like California moved to the right. Centrist Democrats want safe streets, affordable groceries, and common-sense solutions. But the far left is failing to address these concerns.
Here come the independents
There will be one clear winner from the internal battles happening among the Democrats and the GOP: the growth of the independent voter.
Oftentimes, independents are labeled as “leaners” who ultimately end up voting for one of the two major parties. In other words, they’re a “mushy middle.” But our research proves the contrary.
Leveraging our proprietary Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) model, we discovered that independents have a higher degree of group cohesion in their political views than Republicans or Democrats. The graph below highlights this finding -- a lower score indicates a higher degree of cohesion:
Independents can broadly be defined as a desire for social tolerance and fiscal common sense.
Almost every day, the independent movement organically grows and develops.
In the swing state of Michigan, the Democrat Mayor of Detroit recently announced that he would be running for governor as an independent. Meanwhile, former Virginia Congressman Denver Riggleman is actively mulling whether he would benefit from running for governor as an independent. Meanwhile, the New York Times ran a major piece highlighting how the two parties are failing to meet the contemporary needs of a vast majority of Americans
Americans are often reluctant to look at global events for indicators of larger trends. But in this instance, an anti-incumbent message is sounding throughout liberal Western democracies: the status quo is failing.
Whether we’re talking about the rise of the AfD in Germany, to the surprising electoral success of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national in European elections this past summer, to the landslide Labour Party victory in the UK, voters feel that incumbent political parties are out of step with everyday concerns.
In Argentina, a country dealing with a major monetary crisis, voters opted to elect the libertarian Javier Milei to cut government spending and kickstart economic growth. Meanwhile, the Liberal leader of Canada, Justin Trudeau recently resigned, with his party positioned to lose their control of government in the upcoming elections.
These trends suggest that it’s not just in the United States that established political parties are in crisis.
Independents are the plurality and hold the power, after all.
