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This week, the consumer price index (CPI) report noted that inflation slipped to 2.9% in July, exceeding expectations. This month is the first time the CPI dropped below 3% since early 2021. According to the IMF, “Inflation measures how much more expensive a set of goods and services has become over a certain period, usually a year.”
The narrative of cooling inflation is one that the Biden administration is actively trying to take credit for. On Wednesday morning, the White House released a statement saying, “Today’s report shows that we continue to make progress fighting inflation and lowering costs for American households. Inflation has fallen below 3% and core inflation has fallen to the lowest level since April 2021. We have more work to do to lower costs for hard-working Americans, but we are making real progress, with wages rising faster than prices for 17 months in a row.”
Meanwhile, Republicans are quick to point to Bidenomics as the primary culprit behind rampant inflation and the affordability crisis. At the Republican National Convention, Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers claimed that “American families have been crushed by inflation.” At the same time, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin squarely blamed President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Playing the inflation blame game is something that most have come to expect from the two parties. It is an election year, after all. However, for independents, this partisan tactic overlooks the real affordability crisis that many Americans feel.
The Independent Center’s recent polling of registered voters found that 67% of respondents listed affordability/inflation as their top concern. Sure, social issues matter. But Americans likely aren’t heading to the ballot box en masse in November to advocate for cannabis legalization.
Remember what James Carville, Bill Clinton's political advisor, famously said regarding the 1992 elections? “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Macroeconomic trends are important. There’s no denying this, as there’s a connection between overall economic health and personal financial well-being. But GDP growth doesn’t mean much when the price of gas forces families to rethink vacation plans or cut back on groceries.
So even though these reports of inflation cooling are promising, voters are right to be concerned about affordability.
However, an inconvenient truth for officials touting a decrease in inflation is that prices are often sticky for everyday goods. This means that once they go up, they don’t often come back down. Higher prices for things like groceries are likely here to stay. Prices are higher for meat, frozen vegetables, and condiments. That’s life now.
And don’t even get voters started on housing.
In the Independent Center’s latest polling conducted in the critical battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, 84% of respondents said they were concerned about housing affordability. Additionally, 59% said that Washington needs to do more to address this issue.
Clearly, solutions are needed to help Americans struggling to make ends meet. The purchasing power of our dollars has fallen dramatically over the last 20 years. And it seems to be losing its power at an increasing rate.
Inflation is trending in the right direction, which is a good thing. But voters don’t want to be told prices are cooling off; they want to feel it, to experience it in their everyday lives. Talk is cheap, but gas isn’t.
Our polling indicates that many voters don’t feel heard in Washington, so the party that genuinely listens to them will reap massive benefits and, likely, electoral success.
