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American politics has long suffered from the constraints of our binary system, which inhibits public discourse, political compromises, and voter complexities. It forces voters into opposing camps and plays into our most base tribal instincts. It’s hard to imagine ending up in the hyperpolarized world in which we live without it.
There is good news: America is moving beyond polarization thanks to millennials (ages 28 to 43), its largest generation, and Generation Z, their younger siblings. Until millennials came of age, young voters tended to lean independent, but they would eventually choose a side when they got older and settled into a career and family. Millennials have broken that tendency and have remained politically independent into their 40s.
According to Gallup surveys, self-identified independents have been the plurality of the electorate since Obama’s re-election in 2012. The primary factor determining whether a voter exhibits partisan loyalty is age. The older a voter is, the more likely they are to align with either Republicans or Democrats. The age at which partisanship significantly declines appears to be under 45.
As our pollster, Brett Loyd, said, politics is not Red or Blue; it’s Old vs. New.
This is likely for a couple of reasons. First, millennials have grown to view choice as a lifestyle. Unlike their parents and grandparents, who bought the same model cars, stayed at the same companies for a career, and rarely left their hometowns, millennials have embraced the innovation and technology that enable them to personalize their lives. For example, these folks exercise the choice to receive groceries on their doorsteps, earn a degree from any university in the world, and work remotely from wherever fits their needs.
Party loyalty or straight ticket voting doesn’t compute in the mind of a millennial accustomed to DoorDash, Uber, Amazon, and Instacart.
Second, millennials’ worldview does not fit neatly into either major party; as a result, they are forging a third way. In accordance with their à la carte lives, they pick and choose the policies that best reflect their values, regardless of the source. Our survey data and their voting habits show that these policies tend toward fiscal responsibility and social tolerance. Because they aren’t beholden to a party, they are free to choose the candidates who authentically represent those values.
The ability of America’s largest generation to exist comfortably outside our binary system means a clear path away from tribalism and polarization, and toward a values-oriented, policy-focused world.
Millennials and Gen Z are driving a much-needed political realignment, one that has ultimately transformed the American political landscape from a bicycle into a tricycle. The 2024 election witnessed a historic turnout for independent voters, with independents surpassing one of the two major parties for the first time. According to exit polling, Republicans led with 35 percent, independents followed closely at 34 percent, and Democrats trailed at 31 percent.
Independents proved to be the third force in American politics.
I am more hopeful than ever. The future is in good hands. I am not a gambler, but if I had to bet, I would bet the future is not red or blue; it's fiscally responsible, socially inclusive, and free to choose the best options for ourselves, our families, and our communities.
