The 2024 election proved that independents are the deciding factor in national elections.
The Big Picture
The Independent Center has dedicated its research and analysis to independent voters, uncovering trends that challenge the traditional Republican vs. Democrat binary. Despite decades of political analysis focused on the two major parties, our research, along with others, confirms that as many as 51% of Americans now identify as independent.
Partisanship has been in steady decline since Obama’s re-election in 2012, and since then, independents have consistently been the largest political affiliation in America.
These are the coveted swing voters who delivered victories to Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, prevented the anticipated “Red Wave” in 2022, and, due to economic concerns, helped Trump win the presidency again in 2024.
Zooming In
Independents are a generational shift
In studying independent voters, we quickly realized that we were also studying Millennials and Generation Z. According to our research, the strongest predictor of being an independent voter is age. The dividing line appears to be 45—older voters, particularly Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation, remain heavily partisan, while younger voters are increasingly independent.
As a result, political loyalties are shifting in ways that traditional party leaders are struggling to grasp. Younger voters are values-driven, not party-driven, meaning they prioritize pragmatic solutions over ideological purity.
Independent voter turnout shattered expectations
For years, independents were dismissed as a group that lacked voter enthusiasm and failed to turn out in high numbers. The 2024 election permanently shattered that narrative. According to exit polling, independents accounted for 34% of the electorate, surpassing Democrats (31%) and coming just one point behind Republicans (35%).
This is the first time in American history that independent voters outvoted a major party.
Ticket splitting is back—and it's here to stay
One of the most striking trends in this election was the resurgence of ticket splitting, a behavior once common in American politics but nearly extinct in the hyper-partisan era.
Despite voting for Trump in the presidential race, independents helped Democrats win Senate seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. They also backed a Democratic governor in North Carolina, a state that went for Trump.
The data suggests that independent voters are not tied to party loyalty but to solutions that align with their priorities. This is a shift away from partisan polarization and toward a values-based, issue-driven approach to politics.
This is the same behavior that saw independents back Trump in 2016, switch to Biden in 2020, and return to Trump in 2024.
Independents are the deciding factor in every election
With the electorate now split almost evenly—one-third Republican, one-third Democrat, and one-third independent—it is now mathematically impossible for either party to win a national election without appealing to independent voters.
Yet both major parties fail to engage independents in any meaningful way outside of election cycles. This is a critical miscalculation.
Data Snapshot
- 51% of Americans now self-identify as independent, the highest number ever recorded.
- Independents outvoted Democrats (31%) in the 2024 election and came within one point of Republicans (35%).
- Independents split their tickets—voting for Trump at the top of the ticket while supporting Democratic Senate candidates in key battleground states.
- Millennials and Gen Z are driving the independent surge, breaking with older generations that remain heavily partisan.
Independent Lens
The 2024 election confirmed what we at the Independent Center have been tracking for years—independent voters are now the second-largest political force in America.
Neither party can afford to ignore them, yet both continue to operate within the outdated framework of partisan loyalty. Independents demand pragmatic, solution-oriented governance, not ideological warfare.
As we look ahead, the question for both parties is clear: Will they adapt to this new reality, or will they continue alienating the largest bloc of voters in the country?
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