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Studying Independent Voters, Part 1: Outside the Binary

Part One

The Independent Center has focused its research and analysis on independent voters. We found that, until now, almost all analysis was viewed through the typical binary lens of Republicans vs. Democrats or, more broadly, right vs. left. Yet we know from our polling, as well as others, that as many as 51% of Americans self-identify as independent.  

According to Gallup survey data, partisanship has steadily declined since Obama’s re-election in 2012. Respondents identifying as independents have been the plurality without exception since 2012.  

These are the coveted swing voters who supported Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, prevented the “Red Wave” in 2022, and, because the economy and affordability were top concerns, helped Trump win the swing states in 2024.  

We decided it was time to study independents through an independent lens.

Immediately, we realized that in order to study independents, we were necessarily studying millennials, America’s largest generation, and their younger siblings, Generation Z. We found the biggest predictor of being an independent voter was age. According to our research, the line seems to be 45. Baby Boomers and their parents, the Silent Generation, are the last generations to be heavily partisan.

The knock against these self-identified independents has been that they don’t vote with the same propensity as the partisans. We take issue with that criticism, but regardless, independent turnout this election shut down that narrative for good.

Exit polling found that independents (34 percent) turned out three points more than Democrats (31 percent) and one point behind Republicans (35 percent) this election. This is the first time independents have unequivocally outvoted a major party.

Notably, another novel pattern emerged because of these voters: ticket splitting. Democrats won Senate seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin – all states that went for Trump. They also won the governor’s mansion in another Trump state - North Carolina. The death of feverish partisanship will likely mean the death of  

Ticket-splitting and switching back and forth like independents have voted in the last four election cycles is indicative of a new ethos rooted in voters under 45. One that trades party loyalty for a more values-based loyalty. Unbound by a party, these voters go wherever the pragmatic solutions happen to be.  

This pattern could not be clearer than in the past three presidential cycles, when independents went for Trump, then for Biden, and then for Trump again.  

As a result, the nearly equal split between Republicans, Democrats, and independents into a third, a third, and a third means that, regardless of any self-identification measure, independents do show up and vote on election day and winning without them is mathematically impossible. The two major parties, therefore, must speak to independents in ways that move them – beyond just the typical courting during election cycles.

In part two, we will get into the process by which we came to discover independents as a cohesive political group, amenable to moving as one to the right political messaging. In other words, independents are the third force in American politics.  

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