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At the Independent Center, we polled 500 registered voters in each of the three key swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
In this article, we will take a look at the sentiment of these voters heading into the 2024 elections including: how they’re feeling about the election, which way they would vote, approval ratings of Congress and if people feel their voices are being heard. You can view the Independent Center’s exclusive swing state survey toplines here.
Swing State Voters Lean Towards Harris
We asked voters “If the Presidential election were held today, how would you vote if your options were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris” The results show that Harris holds a slight overall lead of 49% to Trump's 43%, and 7% of voters remaining unsure.
Breaking down the state-by-state results, we see that the race is tightest in Pennsylvania, where Harris leads by just 4 percentage points (49% to 45%). Wisconsin shows the widest margin in Harris's favor, with 51% supporting her compared to 42% for Trump. Michigan falls in between, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 43%.
The consistency of the "Unsure" category across all three states (7-8%) suggests a small but significant portion of the electorate that could potentially swing the outcome in either direction. This shows us that voters favor Harris over Trump in these three swing states.
Widespread Dissatisfaction With Congress
When asking voters “Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?” the overall disapproval rate is notably high, with 67% of respondents expressing disapproval of Congress's job performance, compared to just 26% who approve. This more than a two-to-one ratio of disapproval to approval indicates a significant lack of public confidence in congress writ large.
Examining the intensity of opinions, we see that strong disapproval (27%) is more than five times higher than strong approval (5%). This suggests that those who are dissatisfied with Congress feel much more strongly about their position than those who support it.
The "somewhat disapprove" category is the largest single group at 40%, indicating a substantial portion of the electorate has moderate but negative views of Congress's performance. In contrast, 21% somewhat approve, showing a milder positive sentiment among a smaller group.
The disapproval rates are remarkably consistent across the three states, ranging from 66% to 68%. Wisconsin shows the highest disapproval at 68%, while Pennsylvania has the lowest at 66% - a negligible difference. Approval rates are similarly uniform, hovering around 24-26%. This consistency across states suggests that dissatisfaction with Congress isn’t confined to state borders and local issues, pointing to a broader, national discontent. The high percentage of those who are unsure (6-9%) also indicates that a notable portion of the electorate feels disconnected or uncertain about Congress's activities.
The Data is Clear – Voters Want Centrist Politicians
We then asked voters Which of the following do you think would be the best candidate to represent you and your neighbors in Congress? and we found that there is a strong preference for bipartisanship among voters. A majority of respondents (51%) favor a candidate who works and votes with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.
This strong preference for cross-party collaboration significantly outweighs support for candidates who align strictly with either major party, suggesting a widespread desire for more centrist solutions and a rejective of polarization politics.
Interestingly, the support for purely partisan candidates is nearly evenly split, with 22% preferring a Democratic-aligned candidate and 21% favoring a Republican-aligned candidate. This shows us that there is a close race amongst those who have strong partisan leanings, but that the majority of voters fall somewhere in the middle.
Do you believe your voice is being heard?
To analyze levels of trust voters have in elected officials we asked voters “Do you believe that your voice and opinions are being heard in Washington, DC by your elected representatives?” Across all three states, a majority (53%) of respondents believe their elected representatives in Washington, DC are not listening to them. This confirms that voters are disconnected to Washington.
Only about one in five voters (21% overall) feel their voice is being heard, with Michigan showing slightly more optimism at 25%. This small minority of satisfied constituents is alarming from a democratic standpoint, as it suggests that a large portion of the electorate feels disenfranchised or ignored in the political process.
Get the full toplines for the Independent Center’s August Swing state survey and join the movement to receive the latest news and support us.
