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The 118th Congress was historically ineffective. As we gear up for the 119th session, the Republican majority will be even thinner. Because of this, political independents are understandably skeptical that this Congress will be any different than the previous ones.
Imagine what Washington would look like right now if we had three Independents elected to the House. Just three. Independents would be in control of the agenda since neither party would be able to form a majority without us. We could also shape public opinion because we would be seen as credible, given we are not partisan hacks.
How close are things in the House? Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report notes that control of the House came down to CO-08, IA-01, and PA-07, and was decided by just 7,308 votes out of 148,000,000 ballots cast in 2024. These were districts with an independent vote plurality.
It’s hard to overstate our opportunity in 2026.
While the GOP is feeling ecstatic with a dominating cycle, the political wheel of fortune moves fast. (I remember being here in 2010 with the Tea Party wave. I was convinced we were going to repeal Obamacare. Oops.) The 2026 and 2028 political cycles are already beginning.
Trump was able to capitalize on Harris being out of touch, focusing on transgender issues while Americans still dealt with the pain of inflation.
The final totals show Trump gained 3 million voters for a total of 77.2 million, while Democrats lost 6.3 million voters for a total of 74.9 million. How would have things been different if the Democrats went with popular governors Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer?
As the Democrats lick their wounds from the staggering underperformance of over 6 million votes, they must come to terms with the rejection of ultra-progressive social policies that are out of step with the vast majority of Americans. The majority of Americans care about the price of gas and the cost of groceries, and Democrats forgot this.
But the GOP will have to turn from winning elections to governing. They don’t have 60 votes in the Senate and only a 3-seat majority in the House. The winning majority’s expectations also need to be managed. With all their bravado of slashing government spending, the reality is that the GOP base is more dependent on government programs than any other cohort in the U.S. This is a demographic that historically supported tax hikes over spending cuts. The populist wing, led by JD Vance and Steve Bannon, is on the rise. How will the GOP navigate the internal divisions between its base and limited government principles?
And when it comes to governing, it seems that most people forget how the process works. Our system is designed for bills to progress through the House and Senate, not through the regulatory fiat of whoever is in the White House.
Big, permanent changes are made through law. If a deal is crafted the right way, it will come about through consensus-driven compromise. The limits of that compromise are shaped by public opinion. Consider the lasting impact of the Reagan tax cut bill; it defined an entire generation of policies from the early 1980s until Obama’s election in 2012.
Only legislation has the authority to determine the country's direction. An executive order offers no substitute and undermines the system, while empowering the imperial presidency and resulting in greater concentration of power in the executive branch. This shift occurs at the expense of the democratically elected legislature.
Currently, the policy limits are what can successfully navigate the legislative strategy of reconciliation. It’s not permanent and is not viewed favorably by the American people, as it is perceived as a partisan gimmick.
Elon Musk is doing great work though the DOGE commission. It reminds me of the Grace Commission under Reagan. But the bottom line is any meaningful reform will require legislation if it’s going to crack into mandatory spending. It will also need broad public support to be enacted.
We aren’t treating the Independent Center as merely another public policy shop; instead, we’re approaching it as a product ready to hit the market. When a private company launches a new product, it first analyzes the market for product fit. We've identified a gap in the political marketplace, and we recognize that consumers are eager for what we’re offering.
Independents want more choices after all.
It's not just the consumers who want this product. The media also craves the rise of independents as a political force—not necessarily because they agree with it, but because it makes politics more dramatic and interesting to cover. It’s fresh, disruptive, and shakes up the established order. That disruption is good for the news industry.
The opportunity for independents is clear. The market is ready. Now is the time to capture the wave of partisan discontent to incentivize genuine change in Washington.
