Short-term market gains and election promises won’t solve affordability issues—independent voters demand real action from the new administration.
The Big Picture
If there’s one major takeaway from the 2024 election, it’s this: Americans went to the voting booth with the economy top of mind.
By most economic measures, the economy has steadied since the COVID-19 pandemic. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing steadily, the labor market has nearly recovered, and inflation has dropped to a three-year low, nearing the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
Yet, despite these improvements, voters chose Donald Trump over Kamala Harris—a clear signal that they remained frustrated with affordability and cost-of-living pressures. The market reacted immediately, with stocks surging following Trump’s victory. But short-term gains don’t erase long-term economic concerns, and independents aren’t convinced that campaign rhetoric will translate into real solutions.
Zooming In
Wall Street’s Celebration Doesn’t Change Main Street’s Reality
- Following Trump’s election, the S&P 500 rose 2.5%, the largest single-day gain in nearly two years.
- The Dow surged 3.6%, while the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller, highly volatile companies, jumped almost 5%.
- Investors welcomed promises of deregulation, corporate tax cuts, and austerity measures—but how will these policies impact everyday Americans?
Affordability Issues Haven’t Gone Away
- Leading up to the election, our polling showed that affordability remained a major concern.
- The cost of basic necessities—like eggs, gas, and housing—remains painfully high.
- Homeownership feels out of reach, and wages haven’t kept up with rising costs.
Trump’s Economic Plan: A Lot of Promises, Few Concrete Strategies
- On the campaign trail, Trump promised to remove taxes on tips and start a trade war with China, but these policies lacked coherence and a clear economic roadmap.
- When asked about tackling affordability on September 21, he dodged specifics, instead attacking Harris’s ability to answer the question.
- His one clear policy—tariffs—will likely drive up inflation rather than relieve cost pressures. CBS News reports that tariffs would increase prices on consumer goods, disproportionately hurting the middle class and working families.
The Global Economy Won’t Wait for America to Decide Its Role
- Trump’s trade war strategy assumes China will bear the brunt of economic retaliation, but China has been hedging against U.S. pressure for years.
- China has strengthened its economic ties with BRICS nations and the Global South, reducing its reliance on U.S. trade.
- If Trump isolates the U.S. from global markets, independent voters will feel the impact through higher prices and slower economic growth.
Data Snapshot
- The U.S. economy has stabilized post-COVID, but voters still feel the strain of affordability issues.
- The S&P 500 surged 2.5% after Trump’s victory, while the Dow jumped 3.6%—but stock market gains don’t equal economic relief for average Americans.
- Affordability remains a top issue, with homeownership and basic necessities still out of reach for many.
- Trump’s tariffs will likely increase inflation, contradicting his promise to ease cost-of-living pressures.
- China is deepening ties with other nations, reducing its reliance on U.S. trade—making Trump’s economic strategy more risky.
Independent Lens
Independents helped decide the 2024 election—but their support isn’t guaranteed for Trump in 2026 or 2028.
They voted on affordability, inflation, and economic uncertainty. Now, they expect real solutions—not empty promises and reactionary policies.
If the new administration fails to address cost-of-living concerns, independents will flip—just as they did in 2020 and again in 2024.
Stock market gains may grab headlines, but they don’t pay rent or lower grocery bills. Independent voters expect more than market speculation—they want economic policies that improve their daily lives.
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