The Trump Administration Independent Voter Scorecard

It’s Time for This Admin to Get Serious.

• Trump won the election decisively. He did this by winning independent voters on the issue of affordability, especially at the closing of the campaign.  

• But these voters have expectations: They were enticed by his plans to address affordability, immigration, tax policy, government efficiency, debt and deficit, and other important issues that affect everyday Americans.

• He brought in big private sector names like Eon Musk to head the DOGE commission, what could be a very serious and impactful reset.

• He made big promises about ending the Ukraine war before being sworn in.

But instead, what dominates the media as of late are his threats to Canada, Greenland, Colombia, and Panama. While some might write this off as a joke or part of his “art of the deal” methodology, the average American struggling with paying for gas and groceries, buying their first home, or dealing with skyrocketing health care costs expect a pragmatic focus on everyday issues.  

The Independent Center is here to hold our political leaders to account on behalf of the millions of Americans who identify as independents. Remember, this was 34 percent of voters according to the 2024 exit polls. The midterms, less than two years away, will be a powerful referendum on Trump’s first two years.

Here’s our scorecard on the progress of the administration as we settle into our new government: (updated 31 Jan 2025)

Affordability & Inflation: Neutral

• Nearly two weeks in, Trump hasn’t taken any significant steps to address two of his primary campaign promises: affordability and inflation. Some would say he deserves a negative because of that. We see it a little differently, at least for now, because many cabinet officials still haven’t been confirmed, and the administration is still being organized. Congress also hasn’t focused on legislating on these issues in its opening weeks.
• Trump and his team are already backing away from promises to make goods cheaper. While he may maintain inflation within the 2 percent range, that still means prices are rising, not going down. 66 percent of Republican voters want a “significant price reduction” compared to 55 percent of independents.
• We are watching potential developments that could impact Trump’s score in this area, such as the imposition of new tariffs, particularly on Canada and Mexico, two of the United States’ top three largest trading partners. We anticipate new tariffs will negatively impact Americans and increase inflation. Promises to institute tariffs, especially on Mexico and Canada, will result in significantly higher electricity, gasoline, wood, food, and car prices.

Taxes: Neutral

• The Trump administration is prioritizing the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and additional tax cuts that could be part of a budget reconciliation package in the early spring. That legislative initiative will be incredibly tough to pull off because of the close margins in the House.
• The imposition of new tariffs will negatively impact this score going forward, if the administration does indeed take that path. Tariffs are taxes. The costs are merely passed along to consumers.
• Trump’s promises include several special carve-outs and commitments to lower taxes. However, there is insufficient information at this time to assess the likelihood of these promises being fulfilled.  
• Discussions are already underway with congressional representatives from high-tax states who are advocating for removing or raising the SALT cap. SALT puts a cap on the amount a tax filer can deduct from taxes. Removing or raising the cap would shift the tax burden to lower tax states and lower income earners. This development is worth monitoring, as it could represent a significant policy shift as states with higher marginal income tax rates are subsidized by the SALT deduction.

Immigration: Leaning negative

• Securing the Southern border with Mexico was a major focus of the campaign. Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration has issued executive orders either directed at immigration and border enforcement or tangential to it. Related specifically to border enforcement, the administration has indicated that it was focused on violent migrants and those with criminal histories. According to recent reporting, 5,500 migrants have been detained. Many of those detained don’t have a criminal history. There have also been reports of detention of Americans and warrantless searches of private property.
• The administration’s focus on the border and illegal immigration is fulfilling a campaign promise, but it could also impact consumers, as legal migrants leave the United States, potentially hurting productivity and driving up the cost of groceries and retail products made in the country.
• The administration’s order on birthright citizenship is also concerning because it ignores the intent of Congress and existing Supreme Court precedent.

Debt & Deficit: Neutral

• The Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) memo ordering a freeze in federal spending has been rescinded because of an injunction issued by a federal district judge. That memo was also likely unlawful. Although the memo was rescinded, it does at least show some sensitivity to concerns about federal spending that was absent during the first Trump administration.
• Still, the administration has shown no interest in modernizing Medicare and Social Security, which are two of the biggest drivers of federal spending. Discretionary spending cuts and Medicaid reform, which the administration is pursuing, aren’t enough to get America’s fiscal house in order.
• JD Vance significantly undermined the seriousness of US’s financial situation by voting for a $200 billion bill that will reward public officials with pensions more generous than what average Americans qualify for under Social Security.
• Tax plans and other promises are yet to be fully unveiled making it difficult to determine how serious they are, but additional subsidies for farmers belies the frugality on which Trump ran.
• While far-fetched, the idea of “buying” Greenland would be a costly addition to the US deficit

Government Effectiveness – Leaning negative

• For all the excitement and opportunity surrounding DOGE, Elon Musk and his team have already sent a number of confusing signals suggesting that potential savings are smaller than promised.
• Sweeping promises such as abolishing the Department of Education entail considerable effort to implement. It's important to remember that while it's easy to make bold statements, without a concrete plan, we still have no idea if this will genuinely save money or enhance governmental effectiveness.