The Trump Administration Independent Voter Scorecard

It’s Time for This Admin to Get Serious.

• Trump won the election decisively. He did this by winning independent voters on the issue of affordability, especially at the closing of the campaign.  

• But these voters have expectations: They were enticed by his plans to address affordability, immigration, tax policy, government efficiency, debt and deficit, and other important issues that affect everyday Americans.

• He brought in big private sector names like Eon Musk to head the DOGE commission, what could be a very serious and impactful reset.

• He made big promises about ending the Ukraine war before being sworn in.

But instead, what dominates the media as of late are his threats to Canada, Greenland, Colombia, and Panama. While some might write this off as a joke or part of his “art of the deal” methodology, the average American struggling with paying for gas and groceries, buying their first home, or dealing with skyrocketing health care costs expect a pragmatic focus on everyday issues.  

The Independent Center is here to hold our political leaders to account on behalf of the millions of Americans who identify as independents. Remember, this was 34 percent of voters according to the 2024 exit polls. The midterms, less than two years away, will be a powerful referendum on Trump’s first two years.

Here’s our scorecard on the progress of the administration as we settle into our new government:

Affordability & Inflation: Negative

• Trump and his team are already backing away from promises to make goods cheaper. While he may maintain inflation within the 2 percent range, that still means prices are rising, not going down. 66 percent of Republican voters want a “significant price reduction” compared to 55 percent of independents.

• Promises to institute tariffs, especially on Mexico and Canada, will result in significantly higher electricity, gasoline, wood, food, and car prices.

Taxes: Neutral

• Trump’s promises include several special carve-outs and commitments to lower taxes. However, there is insufficient information at this time to assess the likelihood of these promises being fulfilled.  

• Discussions are already underway with congressional representatives from high-tax states who are advocating for removing or raising the SALT cap. SALT puts a cap on the amount a tax filer can deduct from taxes. Removing or raising the cap would shift the tax burden to lower tax states and lower income earners. This development is worth monitoring, as it could represent a significant policy shift as states with higher marginal income tax rates are subsidized by the SALT deduction.

Immigration: Leaning positive

• Actions on legislation have already advanced to deal with some aspects of immigration policy.

• The administration’s H-1b visa discussion is a positive direction in building a better merit-based program.

• However, a policy of mass deportation is a negative. It remains unclear how this would work practically and legally. Plus, the cost is expected to be significant, not only for the government but for many industries that rely on guest and migratory labor for jobs Americans are unwilling to do.

Debt & Deficit: Leaning negative

• JD Vance significantly undermined the seriousness of US’s financial situation by voting for a $200 billion bill that will reward public officials with pensions more generous than what average Americans qualify for under Social Security.

• Tax plans and other promises are yet to be fully unveiled making it difficult to determine how serious they are, but additional subsidies for farmers belies the frugality on which Trump ran.

• While far-fetched, the idea of “buying” Greenland would be a costly addition to the US deficit

Government Effectiveness – Leaning negative

• For all the excitement and opportunity surrounding DOGE, Elon Musk and his team have already sent a number of confusing signals suggesting that potential savings are smaller than promised.

• Sweeping promises such as abolishing the Department of Education entail considerable effort to implement. It's important to remember that while it's easy to make bold statements, without a concrete plan, we still have no idea if this will genuinely save money or enhance governmental effectiveness.