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Part Two of our 2025 State of the Union poll has been released. Let’s break it down and explore how independent and Republican voters define success for the incoming Trump administration, while also highlighting some unexpected areas of agreement between the two groups.
The survey, which polled 500 independent and 500 Republican voters, provides detailed insights into how these key voting blocs evaluate success across multiple policy dimensions, from economic measures to political cooperation.
High Hopes for Bipartisanship
Both groups overwhelmingly want to see success through bipartisan cooperation, though perhaps surprisingly, Republicans show even stronger support. When asked about Trump working across the aisle (OO5), 83 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents hope to see him succeed at enacting bipartisan policies. Similar numbers emerge for Congressional Republicans (OO6), with 80 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents wanting to see successful bipartisan legislation.
The strong desire for bipartisanship is particularly noteworthy given the current political climate. Only a small minority in either group - 4 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of independents - actively want to see bipartisan efforts fail, suggesting a clear mandate for cooperation from both voting blocs.
Different Thresholds for Economic Success
However, the groups diverge significantly on what constitutes "success" in key policy areas.
On the national debt (NA2A), Republicans set a notably higher bar, with 54 percent saying significant debt reduction is necessary for a successful year, compared to 42 percent of independents. This pattern shifts on inflation (NA2B), where 66 percent of Republicans demand significant price reductions versus 55 percent of independents.
These differing standards for success could present challenges for the administration. While both groups prioritize economic improvements, Republicans consistently demand more dramatic changes to consider policies successful, potentially complicating efforts to satisfy both constituencies simultaneously.
Finding Common Ground on Government Reform
One area of surprising consensus emerges around government reform.
When asked about making government more effective (PS1), both groups show similar support for "reforming government programs to offer more choice with competition from the private sector" - 33 percent of independents and 35 percent of Republicans favor this approach. This represents a rare point of agreement on specific policy solutions.
The alignment extends beyond just the preferred approach. Both groups show similar levels of skepticism toward simply expanding government programs (22 percent of independents, 19 percent of Republicans) or eliminating them entirely (19 percent of independents, 32 percent of Republicans), suggesting a shared preference for reform over either expansion or elimination.
Shared Commitment to Reducing Division
Both groups also show similar aspirations for reducing political polarization. When asked what would constitute success in bringing Americans together (NA2B), nearly half of both groups (47 percent of independents and 50 percent of Republicans) say "significantly reducing political divisions" is necessary. This shared desire for unity comes despite current partisan tensions.
Moreover, both groups demonstrate pragmatism in their expectations, with similar proportions (35 percent of independents and 38 percent of Republicans) saying they would consider even modest reductions in political division a success. This suggests a realistic understanding of the challenges involved in bridging political divides.
Government Spending: A Traditional Divide
Traditional partisan differences emerge on government spending (NA2C), where 57 percent of Republicans say significant spending cuts are needed for a successful year, compared to 41 percent of independents. This reflects long-standing ideological differences between the groups on the role of government.
The gap narrows when considering those who would accept modest spending reductions as successful: 39 percent of independents versus 34 percent of Republicans. This suggests that while both groups are open to spending cuts, they differ significantly on the scale of reduction needed to claim success.
Looking Ahead
As the Trump administration begins its term, these findings suggest both opportunities and challenges. While there's a strong appetite for bipartisan cooperation and reducing division, different definitions of success on economic issues could complicate efforts to satisfy both groups. The shared interest in government reform through market competition might offer a promising starting point for building broader consensus.
Success in 2025 may ultimately depend on the administration's ability to navigate these varying expectations. While Republicans generally demand more dramatic change across economic metrics, the strong shared desire for bipartisanship and political unity could provide common ground for building trust and achieving meaningful reforms that satisfy both constituencies.
