At the Independent Center, we polled 600 registered Michigan voters. In this article, we will take a look at the sentiment of these voters heading into the 2024 elections including: how they’re relating to the election, key issues that are top of mind, and voting intentions. You can view the full survey data by joining the movement.
Majority Disapprove of Candidates
In our Michigan Target State Survey, we asked registered voters in Michigan “How do you view the current political climate in America?” They were given 5 options: ‘very positively,’ ‘somewhat positively,’ ‘somewhat negatively,’ or ‘very negatively.’ The responses showed that 77% of voters responded with either ‘somewhat negatively’ or ‘very negatively.’ This reveals a widespread sense of discontent and pessimism regarding the current state of America.
This sentiment amongst voters is echoed in a recent Pew Research Center poll, which found that “[p]ositive views of many governmental and political institutions are at historic lows. Just 16% of the public say they trust the federal government always or most of the time.” The same poll also revealed that “[a] growing share of the public dislikes both political parties. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) express unfavorable views of both parties, the highest share in three decades of polling. And a comparable share of adults (25%) do not feel well-represented by either party.”
When asked, “Do you feel the Democrats have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 55% of voters felt that the Democrats haven’t selected their best candidate. Similarly, when asked, “Do you feel the Republicans have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 57% expressed the same sentiment regarding the Republican party’s choice. This suggests that voters are seeking better representation. They feel their voices and concerns are being overlooked by the political parties they’ve supported.
It’s clear that voters want to see reform. The dissatisfaction on both sides of the party line is higher than it’s ever been, and voters aren’t seeing a clear way forward. It’s unclear which side will come out on top, but it’s becoming more and more apparent that Michigan voters aren’t excited about the frontrunners on both the right and left.
Voters Rank Key Issues for 2024
To identify the most pressing concerns for Michigan voters, we asked “Of the following, what would you say is the most pressing issue in America today?” providing 12 options to choose from. Out of the responses, 23% of voters ranked immigration as the most pressing issue, and 22% ranked jobs and the economy as the most pressing. The data makes clear that these two issues will largely drive voter decisions, outweighing issues like taxes (9%), abortion (6%), police reform (2%) and national security (6%).
As a recent Gallup poll has confirmed, nationwide anxieties about immigration have become much more salient for voters over the last year, stating, “The percentage worried a great deal about illegal immigration has increased seven percentage points, from 41% in March 2023 to 48% today. This mostly reflects a near doubling of concern among Democrats, from 14% to 27%. Concern has edged slightly higher among independents (rising from 39% to 44%), while it has been steady at a high level among Republicans (74% in 2023 and 73% today).”
Michigan’s Vote Hangs on Swing Voters
After asking, “If this year’s presidential election were between Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, an Independent / third-party candidate, how would you vote?” A total of 42% of people said they’d vote for Biden, whereas 39% said they’d vote for Trump, and 14% said they would vote Independent.
However, when we asked the same set of voters, “Do you expect in the course of the presidential election campaign you might change your mind about the presidential candidate you will vote for?” a notable 10% of Michigan voters said that they expect they might change their mind on their chosen candidate. This is not an insubstantial portion of the population that is characterizing themselves as swing voters. This suggests that the outcome of the election in Michigan is still very much up for grabs. These swayable voters will largely determine which way Michigan leans in the upcoming election.
This further proves that more and more people are frustrated with the current political landscape and are identifying somewhere in the middle of the two party system. On top of that, this demographic of undecided voters will determine the outcome of the Michigan election. This highlights the need for candidates to appeal to this ever-increasing swath of the population.
In conclusion, the sentiment of Michigan voters seems to reflect a growing frustration with the current state of the political landscape and a desire for something to change. The majority of voters are dissatisfied with congress, the current presidential candidates and don’t feel well represented by their party. Moreover, the issues that will sway votes the most revolve around immigration and the economy.
