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Contact: Justin Longo
Phone: 703.994.7104
Email: Justin@independentcenter.org
Washington, DC – The Independent Center and the Bullfinch Group today released a survey of the critical states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris with leads over former President Donald Trump in each state. In head-to-head matchups, Harris leads 48 percent to Trump’s 43 percent in Michigan, 49 percent to 45 percent in Pennsylvania, and 51 percent to 42 percent in Wisconsin.
Bullfinch Group President Brett Loyd said, “Just as Trump saw growing support for the 30 days after the debate with President Biden, his VP selection, and the Republican National Convention, it’s now Harris and the Democrats' turn. With the relatively new selection at the top of the Democratic ticket, going into the Democratic National Convention, the Harris campaign is riding a high of support in the traditional ‘blue wall’ states.”
Independent Center spokesman and senior policy adviser Jason Pye said, “Vice President Harris is enjoying quite a bounce. That bounce will likely be sustained for at least a week following the Democratic National Convention. This survey continues to show the power of independent, Millennial, and Gen Z voters in elections. These wildly important voting blocs make the difference in these ‘must-win’ states. And although President Biden’s approval rating is significantly underwater, voters are thus far looking past Vice President Harris’s place in the administration.”
In a matchup that includes third-party and independent candidates, Harris leads Trump 46 percent to 40 percent in Michigan, 45 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania, and 49 percent to 40 percent in Wisconsin.
Independent voters prefer Harris over Trump, 48 percent to 37 percent, in a head-to-head matchup across the three states. Including independent and third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump 43 to 31 percent.
Democratic Senate candidates also hold leads in each of the three states. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 48 percent to 38 percent. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads his Republican rival, David McCormick, 51 percent to 39 percent in Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 50 percent to 41 percent.
Campaign season has already devolved into name-calling and petty insults, so we felt it appropriate to include a special “Playground Series” of questions. Be sure to check those out.
The online survey of 1,500 registered voters–500 registered voters in each state–was conducted from August 8 to August 11, 2024. The survey has a margin of error of ± 2.53 percent. The Bullfinch Group is an accredited, nonpartisan polling company. Data is unweighted with flexible fielding quotas implemented in each state to ensure representative samples on gender, age, race, political affiliation, and geographic area.