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Washington, DC - The Harris progressives lost the election, the Trump populists won, and the pragmatic independents delivered the victory. Swinging heavily to Trump, independents made it clear that they are the most powerful emerging force in American politics.
Many have immediately jumped to dissecting the exit polling by race, gender, religion, etc. They are missing the forest for the trees. Edison’s exit polling found that for the first time in history, independent voters have reached parity with the two major parties (Independents and Republicans at 34 percent and Democrats at 32 percent of the electorate). With these numbers, it’s clear that neither party can win a majority without strong support from independent voters.
That is exactly what happened. Across almost every demographic group, independent voters swung to Trump. The numbers needed to achieve the size of this GOP victory could not come from swings in one demographic cohort or one region of the country. Election 2024 made this clear: to win an election, a candidate must win independents. This continues and intensifies a trend identified in 2016, when Trump won independents by 4 percent, and in 2020, when Biden won them by 13 percent.
In Election 2024 the Trump campaign mostly focused on one the most critical and clear top priorities of independent voters – economic issues. Independents, like most voters, shared the lived experience of higher prices. This focus on the economic issues meant independents were attracted to a center right choice, especially as the Trump campaign tried to soften their edges on social issues.
Neither party produced a platform that targeted independents. But those independent voters found Trump’s agenda for economic growth and abundance was more relevant to their lives than that presented by Democrats. It resonated in 2024 resulting in an overall 8% swing in independents voters, and even greater in the critical swing states that make or break the Presidential decision. The blue wall states and Georgia exit polling found the GOP benefited from an 11% independent voter swing. Given margins of 2% and less across most swing states, the independent voter delivered a big win.
Pragmatic independents, across all demographic categories, are socially tolerant and fiscally focused, and they are now the most important emerging force in American politics.
Socially tolerant and fiscally focused are values that don’t describe either party. Both the Republicans and the Democrats would have to change to attract the ongoing support of political independents.
Both need to do the math; they need to appeal to independents because they need independent votes to win.
Click here for the Independent Center’s breakdown of the 2024 election.