The Independent Center’s polling prior to the election clearly showed that affordability concerns were at the top of voters’ minds as they headed to the polls.
The Big Picture
Shortly after Donald Trump was elected to the presidency, Wall Street stocks soared to record highs, and the U.S. Dollar jumped. However, as fears of a trade war with Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and other countries grow, these short-term gains are giving way to uncertainty and concern.
Key Facts
Recent weeks have been tumultuous for the American economy:
- The American tech behemoth Nvidia’s stock tumbled by 17% after the Chinese chatbot DeepSeek demonstrated the ability to produce a powerful AI model at a significantly lower cost than competitors.
- This fluctuation is just one aspect of broader economic instability, as the new administration ushered in a flurry of executive orders and tariff threats.
Additionally:
- According to the Wall Street Journal, consumer sentiment fell about 5% in the University of Michigan’s preliminary February survey, its lowest reading since July 2024.
- Inflation expectations jumped from 3.3% to 4.3%, marking the highest reading since November 2024.
- According to Stanford economist Steven J. Davis:
"Uncertainty itself is harmful to business activity. When rules change, even in harmful ways, businesses can typically adapt. But when it isn’t clear what the rules will be, businesses can find themselves in limbo.”
Zooming In
What This Means for Independents
The Independent Center’s polling before the election showed that affordability was the number one issue for voters.
Trump’s promise to "immediately bring prices down, starting day one" was a major reason why he secured a decisive victory.
While most voters realistically understood that inflation wouldn’t be solved overnight, there’s growing concern that some of Trump’s early economic policies—particularly tariffs—could make things worse.
Rising Costs Due to Tariffs
Experts predict that the proposed tariffs will increase costs for consumers:
- The price of new cars is expected to rise by $3,000 on average.
- Steel and aluminum tariffs could increase auto insurance costs for everyday Americans.
- Oil changes might be the first noticeable price hike, with costs likely exceeding $100.
- Over 99% of shoes sold in the U.S. are imported, meaning tariffs could push footwear prices higher.
What’s Next?
President Trump temporarily paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico after a tentative agreement with both countries.
However, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic policy is already disrupting markets, making business growth and investment more difficult. If hiring slows and businesses remain in limbo, it will have direct consequences for American consumers.
Americans need clear, consistent leadership that prioritizes economic stability over political point-scoring. The White House and Congress must take decisive action to ensure affordability remains a top priority.
Independent Lens
The 2024 election was won on affordability, and independent voters played the decisive role.
But rising prices and market uncertainty threaten to push those same voters away from Trump in 2026 and 2028.
- Independent voters are looking for results, not rhetoric.
- They want leadership that delivers on economic relief, not policies that make affordability worse.
- The White House and Congress must act fast to clarify trade policy and prevent higher costs for consumers.
Independents hold the power. If affordability worsens, they will be the first to hold politicians accountable.
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