.webp)
At the Independent Center, we polled hundreds of registered Hawaii voters. In this article, we will take a look at the sentiment of these voters heading into the 2024 elections including: how they’re relating to the election, key issues that are top of mind, and voting intentions. You can view the full survey data by joining the movement.
CANDIDATE’S APPROVAL RATINGS IN HAWAII
In our Hawaii Target State Survey, we asked registered voters in Hawaii “How do you view the current political climate in America?” They were given 5 options: ‘very positively,’ ‘somewhat positively,’ ‘somewhat negatively,’ or ‘very negatively.’ The responses showed that 67% of voters responded with either ‘somewhat negatively’ or ‘very negatively.’ This reveals a widespread sense of discontent and pessimism regarding the current state of America.
When asked, “Do you feel the Democrats have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 39% of voters felt that the Democrats haven’t selected their best candidate. Similarly, when asked, “Do you feel the Republicans have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 45% expressed the same sentiment regarding the Republican party’s choice. This suggests that voters are seeking better representation. They feel their voices and concerns are being overlooked by the political parties they’ve supported.
It’s clear that voters want to see reform. The dissatisfaction on both sides of the party line is higher than it’s ever been, and voters aren’t seeing a clear way forward. It’s unclear which side will come out on top, but it’s becoming more and more apparent that Hawaii voters aren’t excited about the frontrunners on both the right and left.
KEY ISSUES FOR HAWAII VOTERS
To identify the most pressing concerns for Hawaii voters, we asked “Of the following, what would you say is the most pressing issue in America today?” providing 12 options to choose from. Out of the responses, 21% of voters ranked jobs and the economy as the most pressing issue, and the second most pressing issue was split between immigration and government leadership both with 14% of people ranking it as their most pressing concern. The data makes clear that these two issues will largely drive voter decisions, outweighing issues like energy and the environment (6%), abortion (5%), police reform (5%) and national security (4%).
BIDEN HOLDS COMMANDING LEAD IN HAWAII
After asking, “If this year’s presidential election were between Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, an Independent / third-party candidate, how would you vote?” A total of 57% of people said they’d vote for Biden, whereas 38% said they’d vote for Trump.
However, when we asked the same set of voters, “Do you expect in the course of the presidential election campaign you might change your mind about the presidential candidate you will vote for?” a notable 14% of Hawaii voters said that they expect they might change their mind on their chosen candidate, and an astounding 16% were unsure. In the Aloha State, Joe Biden enjoys a commanding lead over Donald Trump, with a clear majority of Hawaiian voters saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate compared to just a third for the Republican incumbent.
Although Joe Biden holds a commanding lead over Donald Trump in Hawaii, a noteworthy segment of voters remain undecided or open to changing their minds. This suggests that even in a state that leans heavily Democratic, there is still an undercurrent of frustration with the current political landscape and a desire for fresh perspectives. To maintain and expand his advantage, Biden will need to continue to address the concerns of these swing voters and make a compelling case for his vision for the country.
While Hawaii’s electorate largely mirrors the national mood of discontent with the political status quo, the state’s strong preference for Biden indicates that Hawaiian voters still see the Democratic Party as the best vehicle for change. To capitalize on this sentiment and solidify their support, Democrats will need to focus on the issues that matter most to Hawaiians, such as the economy and immigration, while also highlighting the contrasts between Biden’s leadership style and the current administration. By presenting a unified front and a positive message tailored to Hawaii’s unique concerns, Democrats can hope to turn Biden’s strong polling numbers into a decisive victory come November.
