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Independents stepped up in Election 2024, becoming the second largest voter group, at 34 percent, one point behind the GOP and ahead of Democrats at 32 percent, according to exit polling. It's no longer a two-party system. Independents have emerged as the third force in American politics.
It is clear that Donald Trump’s party is set to take full control of all three branches of government. The only reason this was possible is that political independents—who have consciously avoided aligning with either major party—sided with the GOP on issues such as affordability, inflation, and overall economic performance.
Across the board, American voters demonstrated they are clearly motivated by a right-leaning economic message. With Trump softening the blunt edges of the party’s hardline social issues, enough independent voters (8-11% swing) felt free to vote with their pocketbooks.
The math is undeniable: the GOP base is not big enough to win elections without independent voters.
But this does not make independent voters Republicans.
What is clear is that neither party can hold independents. Independents want something that neither of the two parties offers: a balance of tolerance on social issues and right-leaning common sense on economic issues.
Independents are pragmatic, switching sides in each of the last presidential and midterm elections. Why? Because they balance their center-right fiscally focused nature with a more tolerant and socially liberal stance on social issues. This will be the GOP’s greatest challenge. The new Trump administration could easily alienate political independents over social issues. Need further convincing? Look back at the failed “Red Wave” in the 2022 midterms as a result of the campaign focused on abortion rights.
The majority of Americans seek balanced, common-sense solutions. Currently, neither party is willing to alter their ideological purity to capture this group of pragmatic voters, which explains why the independent vote fluctuates in each election cycle.
Looking Forward
The big issues plaguing our country remain. Our debt is out of control, while the demands of an aging population, global insecurity, and challenges to our health and old age programs were largely ignored this election.
Furthermore, there has been a general trend in national politics towards centralizing power in Washington, D.C., at the expense of federalism. Both Republicans and Democrats are guilty of this. What will happen, for example, to the Senate filibuster in this Congress?
The two parties continue to be small tent, unable to find any accommodation between the moderate centrists and their hardcore left or right activists. The dysfunctional primary process ensures these motivated activists will continue to reward candidates who do not appeal to moderate independents. As a result, independents will continue to reject making camp in either of the two parties.
Electoral politics will continue to seesaw. In this election cycle, the window opened for a fiscally focused discussion on America’s future but neither party came up with a broad policy platform that addressed the big issues. Sure, both parties made big statements but followed up with micro-targeted and distortionary policies like no taxes on tips.
This election was a rejection of the Democrats’ identity politics and a referendum on the cost of living. The Democratic and GOP tents are stagnant or shrinking, while those identifying as independent are surging. The GOP tent didn’t get bigger, it just got more “likes” this election.
Trump’s big win was not due to converting or creating millions of new Republican Party members. He attracted a vast number of independent voters. His challenge will be to hold onto these voters in the midterm cycle, when there is no presidential contest. A balanced approach of social tolerance and fiscal responsibility has the potential to resonate with independents.
In June of 2024, Gallup discovered that the majority of Americans lean to the left on social issues but are fiscally responsible. This is a big opportunity.
If this socially tolerant and fiscally focused group is organized around a clear and coherent approach to addressing major issues, including policy trade-offs, independent voters have the potential to fundamentally shift and influence national conversations.
Both the Democrats and the currently governing GOP should take heed: the support of independent voters must be a priority, not just during elections, but more critically as governing becomes more difficult post-election.
The GOP has a mandate, but let’s not forget what history teaches us about how this often plays out. Historically, voters quickly refocus after elections, and ambitious new governments have less time to prove themselves. The contradictions in the election promises become obvious, and the bold new agenda shares the stage with the significant issues that have been avoided but can no longer be brushed aside. The new Trump administration needs public support beyond its 35 percent base, which can only come from independents.
There is no reason to view these voters as loyalists. As pragmatic voters, they will decide based on the issues. The old adage in Washington is, it’s better to be feared than liked. And nothing should be more feared in Washington than these pragmatic independent swing voters.
