The GOP’s Internal Chaos Is Handing Power to Democrats
The Big Picture
Republicans today have the slimmest majority in Congress. Even this fact has not helped unify them in action or in strategy to the extent necessary to advance their policies and ideology.
In fact, the opposite has occurred. Almost every legislative win has been a result of Democrat congressional members providing the majority of the votes. If the election were about which party deserves to be in power based on their ability to govern, the GOP has not shown great promise.
Unable to reconcile their differences and impose party discipline, they continue to cede influence to Democrats, who set and own the direction of legislative progress. Given this dysfunction, which party is the voting public more likely to reward? A party that can come together, exercise influence, and get things done, or one that continues to undermine itself, struggle with internal votes, and fail to implement even broadly supported legislation?
So it might seem odd that the best solution to the current problems facing Republicans in 2024 and beyond is to have a few center-right independents in Congress.
This strategy could be equally effective for Democrats, though they have been far better at maintaining unity and have been more open to working with independents.
Zooming In
The GOP’s Legislative Gridlock
As it stands today, Republican House leadership has had enormous difficulty scheduling normal procedural votes on legislation—requiring only a simple majority. Instead, legislation is often passed by suspending this normal rule, meaning the House requires a two-thirds majority.
This is a serious issue. "Before last year, no rule vote had failed in more than two decades; so far in this Congress, there have been six rule votes blocked. The speaker has had to cancel planned rule votes on even more bills because of threats from members in his own conference to defeat them" (Wall Street Journal).
The result is chaos for Republicans seeking to advance widely supported goals, like recent immigration and border security legislation.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is formally in charge, but in reality, he is not. He has had to rely on Democrats—the opposition party—to govern, giving them leverage they wouldn’t otherwise have. As Rep. Mike Simpson (R., Idaho) stated, “What we heard from the other side was, ‘Hey, we’re gonna bring 200 votes to the table.…What are you going to bring?’” Simpson added, “It gave them leverage that they wouldn’t otherwise have.”
That’s been clear, with the WSJ reporting that of the six must-pass spending bills passed, 63% of Democrats have voted for them, more than the 37% of Republicans voting in favor of their own Speaker’s agenda.
In other democratic systems, Johnson would be considered the head of a coalition government.
Enter the Independent Opportunity
Democrats have been very successful in funding ultra-MAGA and other fringe Republican candidates to set up easier victories in the general election. If the GOP were smart, they would do the same with centrist independents.
The GOP is struggling with its identity, making it difficult to govern. Many socially conservative policies are unpopular with the broader independent voting public, meaning MAGA candidates struggle in critical swing states and districts.
Instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, Republicans should adapt by supporting center-right independent candidates in swing districts. A moderate, centrist independent can pull votes from Democrats, particularly among Millennial and Gen Z voters, ethnic groups, and other key demographics who are uncomfortable with far-left policies. These voters also reject identity politics and prefer a government focused on affordability, inflation, and taxes.
Disillusioned Republicans, as demonstrated by Nikki Haley’s primary performances, need a political home. The counties she won often overlap with the swing districts where the GOP struggles.
Governing More Effectively with Independents
Small majorities are likely to continue. A GOP that negotiates with a few center-right independents would achieve more without having to cave to Democrats.
Independents could provide a pressure valve for party factions like the Freedom Caucus, ensuring that their internal opposition doesn’t automatically force the Speaker into a two-thirds majority vote. This approach would allow Republicans to bank legislative victories without giving Democrats credit for helping pass critical legislation.
Furthermore, independents could help unify the congressional GOP by demonstrating that governance, not obstruction, yields results.
The Case for a Multi-Factional Right
Many MAGA voters feel they have no other real choice. Some appreciate aspects of Trump’s policies but reject the antics of figures like Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
In other democracies, the right is fractured into multiple parties—some socially conservative, some economically liberal, some focused on rural and regional issues. This allows for a more strategic coalition-building approach while maintaining core principles like economic freedom, choice, and limited government.
If these values matter to the modern GOP, they should seriously consider funding independent candidates in key districts. Doing so could be the key to overcoming legislative dysfunction and ensuring that conservative governance remains viable in an increasingly divided political landscape.
Independent Lens
Independent voters are increasingly shaping the future of American politics. Our research shows that a significant portion of swing-state voters prefer candidates who reject extreme partisanship in favor of pragmatic solutions.
Supporting center-right independents offers Republicans a unique opportunity: they can maintain their policy priorities while appealing to a broader electorate. Instead of forcing ideological purity, embracing a coalition approach could be the key to breaking Washington’s gridlock and restoring effective governance.
Republicans have a choice—continue the cycle of internal dysfunction or adapt to the changing political landscape. If they choose the latter, independents could be their path to a more stable and successful future.
