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Republicans today have the slimmest majority in Congress. Even this fact has not helped unifying them in action or in strategy to the extent necessary to advance their policies and ideology.
In fact, the opposite has occurred. Almost every legislative win has been a result of Democrat congressional members providing the majority of the votes.
If the election was about which party deserves to be in power based on their ability to run government, the GOP has not shown great promise.
Unable to reconcile their differences and impart party discipline on members they give the minority party the power and influence to set, and own, the direction. And if the voting public thinks long and hard about it, which would they rather reward? A party that can come together, has influence and gets stuff done, or one that continues to shoot itself in the foot, fall apart on whipping votes and undermine its own legislators even when they do come up with what should be winning legislation.
So it might seem odd that I am suggesting the better solution to the current problems facing the Republicans in the 2024, and elections beyond, would be to have a few center right independents in congress.
Even better if these independents hold the balance of power. I’d say the same advice to the Democrats who face the same issues with their radical left, but have been much better at maintaining unity when it matters most. Plus they have proven more open and willing to work with independents.
As it stands today, Republican house leadership has had enormous difficulty scheduling normal (procedural) rules votes on legislation – requiring only a simple majority. Instead legislation is being passed by suspending this normal rule. The result is that the House requires a two thirds majority. This is a serious issue, “Before last year, no rule vote had failed in more than two decades; so far in this Congress, there have been six rule votes blocked. The speaker has had to cancel planned rule votes on even more bills because of threats from members in his own conference to defeat them.” (https://www.wsj.com/politics/why-mike-johnson-cant-run-the-house-without-democrats-help-a9f5dd23)
The result is a mess for Republicans that want to get traction on sensible goals that are largely supported by the vast majority of members, and by the public. The recent immigration and border security legislation is a great example.
The result is a “Speaker” who is the majority party’s leader, the third most important figure in our system, unable to govern using his own party’s majority position. Mike Johnson is formally in charge, but in reality he is not.
Mike Johnson and the Republican majority have had to rely on the Democrats, the party of the opposition, to govern. The Democrats are only too happy to wield their power to make wins in this environment. In Rep. Mike Simpson (R., Idaho) words: “What we heard from the other side was, ‘Hey, we’re gonna bring 200 votes to the table.…What are you going to bring?’” Simpson said. “It gave them leverage that they wouldn’t otherwise have.” That’s been clear, with WSJ showing that of the 6 must pass spending bills passed, 63% of Democrats have voted for them, more than the 37% of Republicans voting in favor of their own Speaker’s agenda.
In other democratic systems Mike Johnson would be considered the head of a coalition government.
Enter the Independent opportunity
Democrats have been very successful in funding ultra MAGA and other poor quality candidates to help set up their candidates for victory. If the GOP were smart they would do the same with independents and reap the benefits.
Today the GOP is struggling with its identity. This is making it increasingly difficult to govern on its own. There are simply too many social conservatives and policies that are unpopular with the general independent voting public for MAGA candidates to win some of the most critical swing states and districts.
But if Republicans recognized they can’t circle that square, they should change their tactics and support center right independent candidates in swing districts. A moderate/centrist independent candidate can take votes from the Democrats, as Millennial and Gen Z voters, ethnic groups and other audiences recoil from the more extreme left policies. These same voters are not comfortable with the “identity politics” focus of the Democrat party either. Simply put they would all prefer a government that is focused on affordability, inflation and taxes.
Likewise disheartened Republicans, Nikki Haley proving there are vast numbers in this group, need a political home. The counties she won are often exactly the swing districts the GOP is struggling to gain traction.
Small majorities are likely to continue. A GOP that has to negotiate with a few center right independents will likely achieve a lot more progress on key issues without having to cave into Democrat demands. And vice versa, should the Democrats win the House this cycle. It would allow the GOP to bank victories rather than share them with the Democrats. It would provide a pressure valve so that those, like the Freedom Caucus, who can’t come on board, or won’t, don’t automatically force the Speaker into a two-thirds majority vote.
It would show the GOP can really get stuff done. It might even help unify the congressional GOP as “nay” voters see themselves left out of their own governing successes.
There is also a vast group of voters who are voting MAGA because they feel they have no other real choice. Some are okay with many of the goals, or feel positive about the policies of the first Trump term. But these voters don’t want anything to do with the crazy histrionics members like Geatz, MTG and others display on a daily basis.
The reality in many of our peer democracies is that the right is fractured into many different parties. Sometimes they are social conservatives, rural and regional focused, or classical liberal urban free marketers. There are many shades, but they allow for a more strategic opportunity to collect these individualist voices into a coalition that is more true to the overall values of economic freedom, choice and individual liberty, small or limited government.
If that policy agenda matters to the modern GOP then they should seriously consider funding independent candidates.
