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Only in politics can replacing an 81 year old man with a now 60 year old woman be considered a play for the youth vote.
Or that a candidate who makes fun of women who don’t have children is seen as outreach to young voters.
No wonder that both the Democratic and Republican parties are losing ground in the battle for the hearts and minds of Millennial (1981-1996) and Gen Z (1997-2012) voters.
According to the latest research on party affiliation, less than 30% of these two generations are members of either the Democratic or Republican parties, and party membership continues to decline. It’s not only that millenials and Gen Z are not bothering to become card-carrying party members, they also demonstrate a preference for being independent of either party.
Not only are under 45 voters are more likely to be independent than their older peers, now their numbers matter. In a recent Gallup survey, independent voters, at 51% of the voting public, are now the majority. Indeed, the headlines have focused on the fact that both parties need to win independent voters, particularly in swing districts and states, to win the White House or Senate and Congressional majorities.
Over the past election cycles, both parties have ceased to be as welcoming to diverse opinions. They have gone from big tent coalitions to small tents favoring ideological purity and loyalty to the leader. This is moving in the wrong direction, and is out of alignment with the American voters.
Voters are looking for a bipartisan politicians. Fully 51% state that they prefer to vote for a candidate who works with both sides of the aisle. 56% look favorably at a candidate that is independent of both the Republicans and Democrats, and regardless of they will personally vote, overall 69% prefer politicians that work with both sides of the aisle. (Independent Center We Can Do Better Poll)
Today voters, especially those under the age of 45, are not locked into binary right versus left. The right-left paradigm has lost its meaning in light of our new, more secular political baseline. Today, believing in climate change, LGBTQ+ marriage, and women’s reproductive rights are mainstream expectations. These issues do not define or provide much value as predictors of where someone stands politically. The failed "red wave" of the 2022 midterms made this clear.
Instead independent voters are socially tolerant and fiscally moderate, a combination that simply does not fit neatly on the traditional left-right spectrum nor the positions of either party.
Our research as also found that indepednent voters are more cohesive that Democrat or Republican voters, illustrating that they are not just undecided, they have a dfferent perspective and expectations.
For the Republicans, voters under 45 are a huge challenge. As the social conservatives and MAGA populists reshape the GOP, this voting group beome more alienated. But given the focus on economic issues like inflation and affordability should the GOP become more tolerant on social issues they might gain more traction. The GOP also have to recognize that the issues that resonate with their older base, like immigration, does not have the same appeal or priority for those under 45.
The Democrats face a very challenging environment too. Affordability and inflation are the most important issues to these voters. Even with only 4.2% unemployment, younger voters are reeling from the impact of COVID, the lockdowns, and massive inflation. Many struggle to pay for rent and groceries, let alone purchase a home. The American housing market seems so out of reach that many put off marriage and families. They are worried that without Social Security and Medicare reform, there will be no benefits or medical care when they retire. The focus on woke DEI policies appeals to the progressive left, but the independent majority wants to see common sense centrist approaches to address our key challenges including addressing the record debt and deficits that they will be forced to finance.
Finally, Millennial and Gen Z feel they are not part of the conversation, that their issues are not being addressed. Everyone knows the entitlement programs are going bankrupt, yet both the presidential candidates, Trump and Harris, and the Democrat and Republican parties have ruled out modernizing entitlement programs. Neither party is talking about term limits or election reform.
Can the parties change their ways and become big tent organizations again? It’s possible, and there are some green shoots at the local level in recent mayoral elections.
But it is more than likely that millennial and Gen Z voters will remain independent of the parties, rewarding their votes candidates that speak to their issues directly, regardless of party. With 56% of voters wanting to see more options on the ballot and 83% believing our elected officials are not addressing the issues that concern voters, the parties should be worried.
Or, they might sit out the 2024 election altogether, unless someone actually decides to talk with them – and listen to their concerns
