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At the Independent Center, we polled 600 registered Arizona voters. In this article, we will take a look at the sentiment of these voters heading into the 2024 elections including: how they’re relating to the election, key issues that are top of mind, and voting intentions. You can view the full survey data by joining the movement.
Candidate's approval ratings in AZ
In our Arizona Target State Survey, we asked registered voters in Arizona “How do you view the current political climate in America?” They were given 5 options: ‘very positively,’ ‘somewhat positively,’ ‘somewhat negatively,’ or ‘very negatively.’ The responses showed that 80% of voters responded with either ‘somewhat negatively’ or ‘very negatively.’ This reveals a widespread sense of discontent and pessimism regarding the current state of America.
When asked, “Do you feel the Democrats have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 59% of voters felt that the Democrats haven’t selected their best candidate. Similarly, when asked, “Do you feel the Republicans have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 57% expressed the same sentiment regarding the Republican party’s choice. This suggests that voters are seeking better representation. They feel their voices and concerns are being overlooked by the political parties they’ve supported.
It’s clear that voters want to see change. The dissatisfaction on both sides of the party line is higher than it’s ever been, and voters aren’t seeing a clear way forward. It’s unclear which side will come out on top, but it’s becoming more and more apparent that Arizona voters aren’t excited about the frontrunners on both the right and left.
Key issues for AZ voters
To identify the most pressing concerns for Arizona voters, we asked “Of the following, what would you say is the most pressing issue in America today?” providing 12 options to choose from. Out of the responses, 28% of voters ranked immigration as the most pressing issue, and 22% ranked jobs and the economy as the most pressing. The data makes clear that these two issues will largely drive voter decisions, outweighing issues like taxes (10%), abortion (9%), police reform (2%) and national security (6%).
Swing voters to determine AZ election
After asking, “If this year’s presidential election were between Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, an Independent / third-party candidate, how would you vote?” A total of 38% of people said they’d vote for Biden, whereas 44% said they’d vote for Trump, and 13% said they would vote Independent.
However, when we asked the same set of voters, “Do you expect in the course of the presidential election campaign you might change your mind about the presidential candidate you will vote for?” a notable 12% of Arizona voters said that they expect they might change their mind on their chosen candidate. This is not an insubstantial portion of the population that is characterizing themselves as swing voters. This suggests that the outcome of the election in Arizona is still very much up for grabs. These swayable voters will largely determine which way Arizona leans in the upcoming election.
This further proves that more and more people are frustrated with the current political landscape, like in Michigan, and are identifying somewhere in the middle of the two party system. On top of that, this demographic of undecided voters will determine the outcome of the Arizona election. This highlights the need for candidates to appeal to this ever-increasing swath of the population.
In conclusion, the sentiment of Arizona voters seems to reflect a growing frustration with the current state of the political landscape and a desire for something to change. The majority of voters are dissatisfied with congress, the current presidential candidates and don’t feel well represented by their party. Moreover, the issues that will sway votes the most revolve around immigration and the economy.
