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At the Independent Center, we polled registered California voters. In this article, we will take a look at the sentiment of these voters heading into the 2024 elections including: how they’re relating to the election, key issues that are top of mind, and voting intentions. You can view the full survey data by joining the movement.
Candidate's approval ratings in California
In our California Target State Survey, we asked registered voters in California “How do you view the current political climate in America?” They were given 5 options: ‘very positively,’ ‘somewhat positively,’ ‘somewhat negatively,’ or ‘very negatively.’ The responses showed that 65% of voters responded with either ‘somewhat negatively’ or ‘very negatively.’ This reveals a widespread sense of discontent and pessimism regarding California voters.
When asked, “Do you feel the Democrats have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 39% of voters felt that the Democrats haven’t selected their best candidate. Similarly, when asked, “Do you feel the Republicans have chosen their best candidate for the upcoming election?” 59% expressed the same sentiment regarding the Republican party’s choice. This suggests that voters are seeking better representation. They feel their voices and concerns are being overlooked by the political parties they’ve supported.
It’s clear that voters want to see reform. The dissatisfaction on both sides of the party line is higher than it’s ever been, and voters aren’t seeing a clear way forward. It’s unclear which side will come out on top, but it’s becoming more and more apparent that California voters aren’t excited about the frontrunners on both the right and left.
Key issues for California voters
To identify the most pressing concerns for California voters, we asked “Of the following, what would you say is the most pressing issue in America today?” providing 12 options to choose from. Out of the responses, 26% of voters ranked jobs and the economy as the most pressing issue, and 18% ranked immigration as the most pressing. The data makes clear that these two issues will largely drive voter decisions, outweighing issues like taxes (9%), abortion (10%), police reform (7%) and national security (2%).
Biden has substantial lead in CA
After asking, “If this year’s presidential election were between Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, an Independent / third-party candidate, how would you vote?” A total of 59% of people said they’d vote for Biden, whereas 34% said they’d vote for Trump.
However, when we asked the same set of voters, “Do you expect in the course of the presidential election campaign you might change your mind about the presidential candidate you will vote for?” a notable 14% of California voters said that they expect they might change their mind on their chosen candidate, and an astounding 15% were unsure. Although this is not an insubstantial percentage of voters, Biden has a strong lead.
In summary, the mood among California voters mirrors the growing national discontent with the current state of politics and a strong appetite for change. A clear majority of voters are fed up with the performance of Congress, feel let down by their political parties, and are unimpressed by the current crop of presidential contenders. Despite this frustration, Joe Biden currently holds a lead over Donald Trump in the state.
