.webp)
At the Independent Center, we polled 500 registered voters in each of the three key swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania.
In this article, we will take a look at the sentiment of Pennsylvania voters heading into the 2024 elections including: how they’re feeling about the election, which way they would vote, approval ratings of Congress and if people feel their voices are being heard. You can view the Independent Center’s exclusive swing state survey toplines here.
Pennsylvania Senate Race Results
We asked Pennsylvania voters “If the Senate election were held today, how would you vote if your options were Democrat Bob Casey Jr. or Republican David McCormick?”
The results show Baldwin leading with 51% support, while Rogers trails at 39%, with a significant 10% of respondents remaining unsure. Casey Jr.’s 12-point lead is substantial, yet she falls short of securing a majority, which could leave room for shifts as the campaign progresses.10% of voters are still undecided, which is a sizable portion. Therefore, although Casey Jr. is 12 points ahead, anything could happen due to 10% of voters being on the fence. While Case Jr. appears to have a strong advantage, the race remains competitive.
Pennsylvania Voters Lean Towards Harris
We asked voters “If the Presidential election were held today, how would you vote if your options were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris” The results show that Harris holds an overall lead in Pennsylvania of 49% to Trump's 45%, with 7% of voters remaining unsure.
The 7% of undecided voters could potentially swing the outcome either way, depending on how they ultimately decide to vote.
Pennsylvania Voters Strongly Dissatisfied With Congress
Pennsylvania voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Congress's performance, with 66% expressing disapproval compared to only 27% approving. This stark contrast reveals a widespread lack of confidence in the legislative body. The dissatisfaction crosses party lines, as both Democrats and Republicans criticize Congress for perceived ineffectiveness, excessive partisanship, and failure to address crucial national issues.
This pervasive discontent may significantly impact future elections. Voters might seek candidates promising reform and a departure from current congressional practices. Moreover, the high disapproval rates reflect deeper concerns about government effectiveness, potentially intensifying political division and voter disengagement.
The Data is Clear – Pennsylvania Voters Want Centrist Politicians
We then asked voters Which of the following do you think would be the best candidate to represent you and your neighbors in Congress? and we found that Pennsylvania voters have a strong preference for bipartisanship in their congressional representation, with over half (51%) favoring candidates who work and vote with both Republicans and Democrats.
This sentiment reflects a desire for cooperation and compromise in Congress, likely stemming from frustration with partisan gridlock. While there's a slight edge for Republican-leaning candidates (23% compared to 19% for Democrat-aligned candidates), the difference is minimal, suggesting a relatively moderate electorate. The overwhelming support for bipartisanship indicates that Pennsylvania voters may be wary of political extremes and are seeking representatives who can bridge divides.
These findings suggest that candidates who can effectively demonstrate their ability to work across party lines might have a significant advantage in Pennsylvania, potentially swaying undecided voters and appealing to a broad spectrum of the electorate. Overall, the data paints a picture of a Pennsylvania voter base that values cooperation over strict party loyalty, reflecting a desire for more effective governance through compromise and collaboration, similar to Michigan and Wisconsin.
It’s clear that voters want politicians that speak to specific issues rather than merely towing the party line. Maybe this is why Pennsylvania voters don’t feel their voices are being heard.
Do Pennsylvania Voters Believe Their Voice is Being Heard?
To analyze levels of trust voters have in elected officials we asked voters “Do you believe that your voice and opinions are being heard in Washington, DC by your elected representatives?”
Pennsylvania voters expressed significant discontent with their representation in Washington, DC. Only 19% feel their voices are being heard by elected officials, slightly below the 21% overall average but still a small minority. A majority (53%) believe their opinions are not reaching their representatives, mirroring the broader trend across surveyed states.
These findings align with the findings we discussed above regarding a collective desire for bipartisan candidates, indicating Pennsylvania voters may be seeking better representation. To address this sentiment, representatives may need to demonstrate more clearly how they're addressing local concerns at the federal level, and provide more transparent feedback on their activities in Washington. Without such efforts, there's a risk of further eroding trust in the political system and potentially impacting future civic participation.
Get the full toplines for the Independent Center’s August Swing state survey and join the movement to receive the latest news and support us.
