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The Harris progressives lost the election, the Trump populists won, and the pragmatic independents delivered the victory. Now that we’re done cheering or swearing, let’s examine WHY the 2024 election turned out the way it did.
We all see detailed analyses from exit polling, which are dissected every which way by race, gender, religion, etc. There have certainly been some big swings in those cohorts, but this is missing the bigger picture. The price of eggs is up for everyone, be they Latinos, Black Americans, or rural white women. Trump’s campaign captured this issue and effectively neutralized or at least softened the edge on social issues enough to win a big independent voter swing.
In this election, we’ve spotted three key takeaways regarding the importance of political independents.
1. Independents are the 3rd force
Election 2024 makes it clear, we are not longer in a two party system with independents and Republicans are the largest voting groups - and independents are growing.
Political independents have been undercounted and marginalized from the political process for years. Every few weeks since 2004, Gallup has asked Americans for their political affiliation: Republican, Democrat, or Independent.
According to Gallup, beginning around 2010, independents have been the electorate’s plurality, with few exceptions. And since Obama’s re-election in 2012, independents have been the plurality without exception.
That’s more than a decade of minority status for the two major parties. Since Obama’s re-election, independents have reliably polled in the 40s—even hitting 50 percent and 51 percent of the electorate in late January 2021 and June 2024, respectively.
The nation’s largest polling research firm, Edison Research, found independents to be 26 percent of the electorate in 2020. In American politics, what Edison says is meaningful and informs our political debate.
This is why the biggest takeaway from the 2024 election is that, according to Edison, independents have officially broken the duopoly and now share the title of America’s largest political group with Republicans.
Edison’s exit polling found independents and Republicans at 34 percent and Democrats at 32 percent of the electorate. This is undoubtably powered by Millennials and Gen Z, the least partisan generations in history.
And don’t forget that Millennials and Gen Z are the largest and second-largest generations in America. This means that the number of independents, already large, is going to keep increasing.
2. Independents decide elections
Another major takeaway from this election is that in order to win an election, a candidate must win independents. This was true in 2016, when Trump won independents by 4 percent, and in 2020, when Biden won them by 13 percent.
The data could not be more clear.
This election was no different. Trump won all nine critical swing states on his way to victory. According to Edison, he won independents in seven of the nine swing states. Fox News exit polling disagreed with Edison, finding Trump did win independents in Michigan. Either way you cut it, Trump won independents in seven or eight of nine swing states.
Zooming out, Trump swung independents from favoring Democrats by 13 points to 5 points in just four years. A swing of 8 points is massive in the context of razor thin margins in the critical swing states.
This election also proved our modeling that independents are cohesive on key issues. This means independents share similar beliefs, values, and vision for America. This cohesion gives independent voters power in electoral politics because when they move, they move in big numbers, with 2024 just the latest example of the power of our movement. Incidentally, the inverse was true in 2022 when independents did not move towards the GOP and prevented the “red wave” the pundit class swore was coming.
3. Independents need a home
Independents are pragmatic centrists. That'a an opportunnity as we’ve identified through our modeling that independents lean center-right on the economic issues, managing a constant balancing act between key social issues like abortion. Trump did a good job of either keeping these wedge issues out of the discussion, diffusing them, or adopting a more moderate position, like his announcement to veto a national abortion ban. Instead, Trump focused on the independent voter’s bread and butter issues – namely, the rising cost of bread and butter. This mattered most in swing states like the blue wall states and Georgia where exit polling found the GOP benefited from an 11% independent voter swing.
And it may be that with abortion rights on the ballot in many states, independent voters could have it both ways - protecting women's reproductive rights while, at the same time, voting for Trump, whom they perceived to be better on their top issues: affordability, inflation, and the economy. Talk about pragmatic!
In 2024 independents demonstrated once again their power to deliver the win. Their votes, in big numbers, mean that the two traditional parties must do the math. Growing their base from 34 percent and 32 percent is not enough. They need to focus on the issues that matter to independent voters to capture a big enough swing to get across the line. As with many previous elections, 2024 was a referendum on the pocketbook, and unfortunately for Vice President Harris and Democrats, independents agreed.
Looking Ahead
It took about a decade, but finally, independents in America are recognized for the political force we are. By 2028 Edison may even report that independents are the largest political force in America. That will mark the full realization of a political realignment that has been happening since the election of President Obama.
The Independent Center are making it our job to organize America’s political majority into a movement.
Join us and be heard.
