Nikki Haley is the stronger general election candidate for Republicans
The Big Picture
Primaries are practice; they aren’t the final step of the election process. They exist to determine the strongest candidate who can win in the general election. Yet, despite the data showing Nikki Haley as a stronger general election candidate than Donald Trump, Republican voters continue to overwhelmingly support Trump in the primaries.
While Trump dominates Real Clear Politics' (RCP) national polling averages with a nearly 50-point lead, and holds double-digit leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley is far better positioned to beat President Biden in a general election matchup.
Zooming In
Favorability matters
Winning in November requires appealing to more than just a candidate’s political base. General elections are decided by independent voters, and the data is clear—Haley is significantly more favorable than Trump among the broader electorate.
- Trump’s favorability rating is underwater by 15 points, meaning more Americans view him negatively than positively, according to RCP’s favorability aggregates.
- Biden’s favorability is even worse by a point, showing that voters aren’t enthusiastic about him either.
- Haley, however, has the best favorability rating of all major candidates, outperforming Trump by 13 points.
A recent Economist/YouGov poll shows that among independents, 54% have an unfavorable view of Trump, with just 5% undecided—meaning there’s little room for Trump to improve.
In contrast, only 38% of independents have an unfavorable view of Haley, while 40% are still unsure about her. That means she has room to grow, which is crucial in a general election.
General election matchups: Trump vs. Haley
Winning an election isn’t about popularity alone—it’s about winning head-to-head matchups against the opposition.
- Trump leads Biden by just one point in RCP’s 2024 general election polling.
- Haley, however, leads Biden by a larger margin and has the advantage of lower name recognition, meaning she has room to grow as more voters get to know her.
Simply put: Trump’s ceiling is already set, while Haley’s numbers have room to improve.
Data Snapshot
- Trump is leading the Republican primary by nearly 50 points. (RCP Primary Polling)
- Haley has the strongest favorability rating among all major candidates, outperforming Trump by 13 points. (RCP Favorability Ratings)
- 54% of independents have an unfavorable view of Trump, compared to just 38% for Haley. (Economist/YouGov Poll)
- Haley leads Biden by a larger margin than Trump does in general election matchups. (RCP General Election Polls)
Independent Lens
For independents and moderate Republicans, winning in November is the top priority—not just winning the Republican primary. The numbers make it clear:
- Haley is more liked than Trump.
- She outperforms Trump against Biden.
- She has room to grow her support among undecided voters.
If the goal is to defeat Biden, Trump is a riskier bet. The data shows it will be significantly harder for Trump to flip the voters who already oppose him than for Haley to persuade undecided voters to support her.
Republicans who prioritize winning in November should take a hard look at the numbers. The best player for the general election isn’t Trump—it’s Haley.
Independents hold the power in this election. Join us in finding common-sense, data-driven leadership. Get involved here.
