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Here we go. We’re officially one week away from election day. And if we’re certain of anything, it’s this: the 2024 Election is essentially a toss-up.
Everything in the news right now is pointing to a late Trump surge. In fact, futures markets are now predicting a Trump electoral victory. There are various reasons why these narratives are dominating the news cycle, but the fact remains that anything can happen.
In tight elections, it’s almost a guarantee that there will be recounts, legal challenges, and delayed results. This means that we could be waiting for weeks (!) until the election is officially called.
However, on election day, there are five data points and trends that will give us an indication of who will win the electoral race to 270 and gain control of the White House.
1. The Bucks County Bellwether
There’s no way around it: Republicans and Democrats need suburban voters to win the White House. These voters tend to be college-educated and politically independent. In 2022, the Republican Red Wave failed to materialize because the GOP struggled with these voters. When Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin managed to flip the Commonwealth from Blue to Red in 2021, he did this by appealing to suburban parents in the DC-metro area.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important swing state in the 2024 Election. In many ways, it’s representative of America as a whole. There are large swathes of rural areas, the big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and developed suburbs. Situated just north of Philadelphia, Bucks County will be one of the earliest counties to start releasing election returns.
Labeled as the “swingiest Pennsylvania county,” Bucks County will be a good indicator of what we can expect as the night progresses.
2. The Urban – Rural Split
This one is straightforward, but Trump is expected to do well in rural areas, while Harris is supposed to surge in urban ones.
For this election, let’s focus in on Fulton County, Georgia, which contains about 90 percent of the City of Atlanta. North Fulton is home to Georgia’s Sixth District which was represented previously by HHS Secretary Tom Price, Senator Johnny Isaacson, and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. In 2020, Joe Biden won Fulton County with 65.7 percent of the vote. For Kamala Harris to do well, simply winning in these areas isn’t enough. She needs to run up the score in urban areas like Atlanta to make up for the inevitable deficits in the more exurban and rural areas.
If Donald Trump is piling votes in the rural area of Northwestern Pennsylvania, then we’ll know he’s having a decent night. The same can be said for Kamala Harris if she’s holding a commanding lead in Philadelphia.
Remember, these candidates are expected to win these areas. But the question that will determine the course of the election is: By how much?
3. Down Ballot Dynamics
Typically, in Presidential elections, House and Senate candidates who are “down ballot” fare as well as their party’s Presidential nominee. This makes sense. If voters are choosing a candidate for the White House, they would naturally want them to have a favorable Congress to help enact their campaign promises.
For this election, we can zoom in on House and Senate candidates to get a feel for how Trump and Harris are doing respectively.
Is Dave McCormick leading Bob Casey in the Pennsylvania Senate race? Then that’s good news for Trump. If Jon Tester is holding off the Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in Montana, then that bodes well for Kamala Harris.
4. The FEMA Focus
Speaking of another key swing state, let’s talk about North Carolina. Most Republican paths to 270 include carrying this state.
While this election season hasn’t witnessed a major “October Surprise” (yet), it has prominently featured the federal government’s disaster response to Hurricane Helene.
For Western North Carolina (or the counties west of Charlotte), campaign infrastructure might be severely hindered following the devastating hurricane. This could serve to limit voter turnout in an area that Trump needs to win by large margins.
Historically, the registered voters of this area turnout at around 50%. If this is down significantly, Trump’s going to have a hard time.
And if he doesn’t win NC, then he’s going to struggle to win the election
5. Morning Coffee Clips
Look, a majority of the electorate already knows who they’ll be voting for on Tuesday. But for 2-5% of voters, they’re still undecided. For an election that’s coming down to the wire, these small numbers make a big difference.
That’s why it’s worth watching what the media news narrative on election day is looking like while you sip your coffee.
If the headlines on Politico and ABC News are talking about how Trump is going to be giving big tax breaks to the middle class and boost the economy, then these undecided voters are going to be headed to the polls with that in mind. But if they’re running negative headlines about how someone in his campaign made an insensitive remark, then they might be going to vote with a bad taste in their mouth.
While this likely isn’t going to be the best indication of how the election will play out, it’s certainly something to keep in mind given how tight the race is during the final days.
