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We’re only months away from the 2024 election. The primaries have been disappointing contests for anyone interested in a serious adult conversation about policy.
It's not like there aren’t some urgent issues that should focus the minds of our leaders. Our debt and deficit are hitting crisis levels, Medicare and social security funds are heading towards bankruptcy, and conflicts are growing around the globe.
But unfortunately our leaders have mostly ignored these issues, with both Trump and Biden ruling out modernizing our entitlement programs and ignoring the necessary bipartisan action needed to address the debt and deficit issues that will unfairly affect younger voters.
It seems some adults don’t want to have the important conversations. Others, millennials and younger voters are ready.
In our research we focus a lot of effort to engage with younger voters - Millennials and Gen Z who now are the majority of the voting population. More than ever, it is clear to that we are on the cusp of a political realignment and a great opportunity.
It's important to understand something about younger voters. Millennials are not the young kids so many think they are. These adults are in their late 30s and 40s now, are in the middle of their careers, they are raising families, buying homes and saving for retirement. Gen Z are now in their 20s, some casting votes for the first time. They are entering the workforce, the home rental markets and are coming off their parent’s health plans.
Unsurprisingly affordability, job, economy and taxes are all top issues for these voters. This is similar to their older peers. But these generations of voters are more positive about their own situation and future than older voters. This is especially true of Republican voters, with younger voters 53% seeing themselves as better off this time next year vs older one 9.25% (see toplines here).
But that doesn’t mean these younger voters are complacent. Government leadership is important to them, and at present both parties, especially the GOP, have not shown a convincing strategy to attract these voters.
Given the top issues are affordability, inflation and the economy, traditionally a strength for the GOP, this should be a great opportunity. Instead it is shaping up to be a big miss for Republicans, especially when you analyze the differences on social issues.
The Independent Center latest research dives into key issues, economic and social positions to better understand the Millennial and Gen Z voters versus older voters. The insights make it clear there has been a fundamental shift demanding we reformulate how we look at and understand the issues that shape these generations of voters.
Those over 50 need to change their reference points. More than half of today’s voters were born after 1984. The cold war, Reagan administration, and other major events are not relevant to today’s younger voters. Having historical context is important, and in this case, that context needs to reflect that we live in a new era. Like suffrage, the civil rights act and other major social upheavals of the past that reset the national debate, we are witnessing a similar resetting of the playing field. Environmentalism, LGBT+ rights, fairness and other social changes are now the new norm.
The response to these issues by older voters, especially Republicans, shows a sharp divide. Issues like climate change acceptance are not controversial to younger voters. There is no patience for denialists, these dinosaurs are too stuck in the past to recognize the changes in society are profound.
It's simply lazy to assume these younger voters are leftist simply because they differ on issues like the environment and social issues. The right continues to make grave errors in alienating a huge potential audience, yet the research shows a large portion of these voters are highly aligned to center right positions. They are not hard core leftists, most identify as moderates, centrists similar to older Republican voters. And 69% want to see bipartisan action, favoring politicians who work with both sides, only 3% more than older Republicans who also favored a bipartisan candidate.
Like the generations before them who have benefited from the government's role in extending voting rights and ending segregation, these younger voters recognize that the government has a role in addressing the issues that matter in this age, like protecting personal rights and freedoms, and addressing issues like equal opportunity and the environment. They expect better leadership and leadership that understands how important modernizing our policies and programs are to their future, a challenge for both major parties and their aging out of leadership.
These voters have experienced a work life reality that older generations did not, with the rise of the gig, freelance and contractor economy, as well as wide open international competition in many key professions like technology. They are not asking to go back to the “good ole days” of a permanent full time job with a company for life, but they are asking for the rest of us to catch up and modernize the way our programs and policies work for today’s reality.
They are also realistic. The Independent Center’s research notes that almost half of millennial and younger voters don’t believe that medicare or social security contributions fully cover the costs and are resulting in driving up debt. Their older peers wrongly believe they have made sufficient contributions. Unsurprisingly our 70 and 80 yr old presidential candidates have made reforming these programs off limits in the 2024 campaign.
These voters, even self declared Republican millennials are more open to increased progressive taxation - higher taxes on the rich. A higher portion of GOP millennials and younger also support a mixed government/private model for social security. And they are far more supportive of labor unions and protections for workers, with 40% plus millennial GOP voters vs 17.34% non millennial GOP voters agreeing “labor unions are essential to protect the rights of workers. The Government shall provide them with funding and assign them special functions on labor laws.”
Millennials and younger voters, even GOP voters, want to see government action on housing affordability, with 43.2% vs 25.43% agreeing More government involvement in offering more subsidies and programs targeted at disadvantaged individuals.
At a glance this can be misunderstood as leaning left but just as governments in the past addressed health, labor and pension issues with policies at the time that aligned to the needs of the time, younger generations of voters have put us all on notice. Their priorities and issues need to be addressed, it is not left vs right, but modernizing the purpose, focus and delivery of economic and social policies.
The Independent Center has found these younger voters want choices, the freedom to choose the options that are best for them. When offered approaches to address many of the key issues they choose options that provide choices in delivery of education and government services. They favor solutions that they see offer fairness, like equality of opportunity, not equity of outcomes.
This should be an exciting opportunity for those on the traditional right, taken up and taken seriously it can be the starting point for a new centrist movement.
