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As the 2024 election approaches, North Carolina finds itself once again in the political spotlight. The Independent Center's September 2024 survey of 600 likely voters in the Tar Heel State reveals a close presidential race, widespread frustration with Congress, and a strong desire for leaders who can bridge partisan divides.
Trump and Harris Neck-and-Neck in Presidential Contest
The survey asked voters, "If the Presidential election were held today, how would you vote if your options were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris?" (GS3). The results show a virtual dead heat:
Republican Donald Trump: 48% Democrat Kamala Harris: 49% Unsure: 4%
With the race so tight, both campaigns will be laser-focused on turning out their base voters and making their case to the small sliver of undecideds. Trump, who narrowly carried North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, will seek to run up the score in rural areas and among white voters without a college degree. Harris, meanwhile, will aim to boost turnout among Black voters and make gains in the state's growing suburbs.
In a state known for its bruising and expensive campaigns, expect to see a flood of campaign ads and high-profile surrogates in the coming weeks as both sides pull out all the stops to win North Carolina's 16 electoral votes.
Tar Heels Sour on Congress
Like voters in other swing states, North Carolinians take a sharply negative view of Congress's performance. When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing (GS2), more than 3 in 5 (62%) registered their disapproval:
Strongly approve: 8% Somewhat approve: 22% Somewhat disapprove: 34% Strongly disapprove: 28% Unsure: 8%
This deep dissatisfaction with Congress crosses party lines and mirrors national trends. With Washington gridlocked on issues from immigration to healthcare, voters are looking for representatives who can break through the dysfunction and deliver results for their constituents.
Yearning for Bipartisanship in the Old North State
Given their dim view of Congress, it's perhaps not surprising that North Carolina voters express a strong preference for bipartisan leadership. Asked what kind of candidate would be best to represent them and their neighbors in Congress (PS1), nearly half (49%) said they wanted someone who would work with both parties:
A candidate who works and votes with Republicans: 24% A candidate who works and votes with Democrats: 22% A candidate who works and votes with both: 49% Unsure: 4%
In a state with a long history of split-ticket voting and moderate leadership, this desire for bipartisanship runs deep. North Carolina voters have shown a willingness to support candidates from both parties who can appeal to the center and forge compromises on key issues.
For candidates seeking to win statewide or in competitive districts, the message is clear: voters are looking for problem-solvers, not partisan warriors. Those who can present themselves as unifiers and consensus-builders may have a built-in advantage with the North Carolina electorate.
Openness to New Voices and Ideas
In addition to their desire for bipartisanship, North Carolina voters also express an openness to candidates and ideas outside the traditional two-party system. Asked what type of elected officials they think are needed in Washington to improve the federal government's performance (PS4), nearly a quarter (24%) said more Independents:
More elected Democrats: 33% More elected Independents: 24% More elected Republicans: 32% Unsure: 11%
This willingness to look beyond the Democratic and Republican parties is notable in a state where unaffiliated voters now outnumber registered Republicans. It suggests that there may be a hunger for fresh faces and new ideas in North Carolina politics.
Independent and third-party candidates who can tap into this sentiment and present themselves as a viable alternative to the status quo may find a receptive audience among North Carolina voters. Of course, they will still face significant structural barriers in a system dominated by the two major parties. But the survey results suggest that the door may be open a crack for those who can make a compelling case for change.
The Road to November
As the 2024 campaign kicks into high gear, North Carolina once again finds itself at the center of the national political conversation. With a razor-tight presidential race, competitive down-ballot contests, and a strong desire for unity and new ideas, the state is poised to play a crucial role in shaping the country's direction.
For candidates and campaigns looking to win the hearts and minds of North Carolina voters, the path is clear but not easy. They must navigate a polarized and rapidly changing electorate, appeal to the state's moderate traditions while energizing their base, and present a vision for breaking through the gridlock and dysfunction in Washington.
Those who can master this balancing act and speak to the deeply held desires of North Carolina voters for bipartisanship, unity, and fresh thinking may find themselves celebrating come November. But with so much uncertainty and so many variables at play, only one thing is certain: the Tar Heel State will be a battleground to watch in the weeks and months ahead.
Want to dive deeper into the data? Download the complete toplines from the Independent Center's September 2024 Sputh East Swing State survey and explore the full range of questions and responses. From the state of the economy to the most important issues facing the country, the toplines provide a comprehensive look at what's on the minds of voters in key Southern Swing states.
