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Different state statutes may refer to them as unaligned or unaffiliated, but generally, independent voters are the free agents of the U.S. voting population. They shouldn’t be confused with the short-lived movement, The Independent Party, that Robert Kennedy Jr. initiated when he ran for president in 2024.
Independent voters are not part of a formal party. They do not attend monthly party breakfasts or Jefferson-Jackson or Lincoln dinners—typical names for annual fundraising galas organized by county and state party organizations. However, they do show up on election day, and their turnout has been increasing significantly.
Independent voters may switch teams in each election cycle. They are also more likely to cast split ballots. For instance, they might vote for a Democrat for president, a Republican for governor, and perhaps even a Libertarian or another third-party candidate elsewhere on their ballot. They do this at twice the rate of partisans. To borrow from George W. Bush, independent voters are the ‘deciders.’
Gallup polling has shown since 2012 that the bloc of independent voters is larger than both major parties. Additionally, Gallup reported in June of this year that independents not only made up a greater percentage than the two parties combined but also constituted a majority of voters at 51 percent of the electorate.
Not only is this bloc of voters growing, they are volatile. True to their definition, they are entirely willing to move across party lines across election cycles. According to Thom Reilly, "Independents favored Barack Obama in 2008 by 8 percentage points and Trump in 2016 by 4 percentage points. In 2020, independents supported Biden by 13 percentage points and then Harris by 3 percentage points in 2024, representing a 10-percentage-point loss of support for the Democratic candidate."
Independents are also more likely to be younger – 52 percent of millennials, 52 percent of Gen Z while only 33 percent of boomers and 27 percent of the Silent Generation - and according to Reilly, "They characteristically line up between the views of most adherents of the major parties, being more socially tolerant and fiscally aware than their partisan counterparts. They are also more likely to be split-ticket voters than the two major parties' backers and seem to have a notable affinity for rejecting the incumbent."
In short, independent voters don't do politics as usual. Our research at the Independent Center shows that "Independent voters consistently rated key economic issues like affordability, inflation, taxes, and the economy as the most important factors in determining their vote." Independent voters aren't into the fear-mongering two-party duopoly is selling. They just want to be able to reach the American Dream. But they also worry that they may never achieve that dream.
Studying Independent Voters, Part 1: Outside the Binary,
Studying Independent Voters, Part 2: A Cohesive Third Force,
In 2024, independent voters grew their share of the vote, split their tickets and expanded their influence,
The fluid voter: Exploring independent voting patterns over time,
Independent voters think for themselves and stay out of politics – 3 essential reads
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