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One of the most popular articles on the Independent Center website is, “What is an independent voter?” We explain in that piece that being independent simply means not being beholden to any political party.
Going a step further, we wanted to know what issues matter most to independents and what language they use to express those values. After studying independent voters through an independent lens, meaning outside the political binary of left and right, we found a distinct voting bloc with many shared values and beliefs.
In fact, we discovered that independent voters are more cohesive in their worldview than both Democrats and Republicans. Meaning, independents take a holistic approach when forming their worldview, connecting issues and thinking deeply about tradeoffs. For example, when asked about an issue like criminal justice reform, independent voters don’t restrict themselves to talking about sentencing reform and recidivism rates. They connect issues like education and labor laws as part of the bigger picture.
After analyzing independent voters with our proprietary AI technology and polling techniques, we discovered recurring themes and words. These emphasized independents' focus on fiscal issues and a live-and-let-live social tolerance. There is an obvious cohesion in that worldview: freedom to pursue the life that best suits me, my family, and my community and the respect and tolerance for others to do the same.
We found that independents care deeply about the market economy, but not in the same way that Republicans or Democrats do. Our analysis shows that the words competition, equal opportunity, merit, fairness, and choice arise repeatedly. In their own way, independents seem to navigate between the left and right views of the market economy. On one hand, independents support competition, merit, and choice, but they emphasize grounding these forces in a fair and level playing field. On the other hand, they clearly distinguish between equality of opportunity and equity of outcomes. In other words, independents wish to have a clear set of rules enforced by a fair referee.
To put independent voters’ fiscal focus into context, let’s take a look at election 2024. We conducted a number of surveys prior to the election. We discovered that independent voters were going to cast their ballots for the candidate they considered most capable of addressing the two key issues of affordability and inflation. That turned out to be President Trump. As a result, the president and the Republican-led Congress must act to address these issues. Independents are not party loyalists. They will pull support if affordability and inflation are not prioritized.
The independent take on social issues is distinct. Independents are in favor of gay marriage and LGBTQ+ rights, for example, but they take them as a given and beyond the scope of public policy. In other words, independents are not going to relitigate these issues again. They’re settled. Which fits nicely into the overall social tolerance framework of live and let live. Of respect for others to pursue the life that best suits them while they return the respect for you.
Finally, independent voters view choice as an essential part of their belief system. Choice is the vehicle independents use to self-author their biographies and pursue their dreams. When asked what could make government more effective, the answer is always the same: more choice and competition. We get the same answer when we ask about choice in politics. People want more choices. Having more options is a means for more freedom in our lives. The old way was government mandated one-size-fits-all solutions. The new way is many sizes for many people. We like to call it “the choice agenda.”
Election 2024 proved what we’ve been saying for years: independent voters are the third force and hold the power. Neither major party can win on their base alone. Every election demands that Republicans and Democrats connect and resonate with independent voters. There is no way to win without earning the independent vote. And it bears repeating: independents expect real world results. No results, no support. No support, no win. It’s that simple.
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